TRUMPDEPRESSION WILL CREATE AND IS CREATING HUGE OPPORTUNITIES, LONG AND SHORT
We focus mainly on buy and short opportunities, we are not commenting on just the news or results reporting.
TD is Trumpdepression
MTGA is Make Trumpdepression Great Again
MAGA is Make America Great Again
MBGA is Make Belgium Great Again
MEGA is Make Europe Great Again
Proximus is a zero, valuation at zero with this huge capex .
Heidelbergcement ( Eur 36 ) is cheap on 12 times free cash flow, wienerberger also ok. Let us chase those bargains.
Dow stock and Whirlpool stock are looking attractive here..... Signify and Van Lanschot also looking cheap
Insider buying hits 10 year high. Oil crash, exxon, chevron and the suppliers soon bankupt. Petrobras in big trouble with its debt load.
On the buy side, HP is cheap at 13 bucks, strong buy. KBC is the most profitable bank in Europe.
Ageas : it is not cheap; If you know that the risk of a burn in your house is 0.3 percent and that the daaage is likely not more then 18000 then, you can calculate the preium Eur 60 plus ofther risks coververd means no more then 150 euro, currently costs Eur 400....shoudl deflate he.
Crash is justified for our old canoodle companies....been looking in hundreds of companies free cash flow in the likes of Siemens, Agfa, Daimler, etc.......well we are in deep dark age trouble. Most heavily valued companies we cited here have been pummeled, like remy coitreau, Orpea, etc etc.
We are in deep trouble. For example beneteau and manitou zero free cash flow over 2019. Same goes for Proximus and Solvay in Q4, zero free cash flow.....dark age is dark age. Accell is even burning Eur 60 million a year.
Biggest crash since 1987.
In big deflation, investing is the same as spuclating. Heijmans could be cheap at Eur 5. Bought a bit. For Europe, you must take 10 percent deflation yearly and then see if the stock is cheap. Bekaert i have at Eur 17.
Still alive buddies, big D, jobs gone forever, dark age, stocks no value. Syndicus is daily shit but a good business to ripp of clients like you need to do in the dark age. Can confirm in antwerp, dark age. Normal times long over. 1929-1933 remake
Salesforce, giant bubble.
Goldman bullish on Umicore. Umicore is in problems, is cash draining and the switch to electric lacks infrastructure spending. SHort Umicore
CFE is in big trouble, activating costs, calculate a meager 30 million profit adjusted, capex plan badly timed.
AKzo giant bubble in terms of cash flow, retail doldrum, macy's burns 500 million cash ytd, btw employs 130.000 people. TD
Thyssen wacked, trumpdepression full force
If you like analysis, look at Intelsat. The shorts were right. The run up from 3 till 30 was definitely exuberance given 14 billion in debt and zero free cash flow.
Thyssenkrupp battling for survival in TD. The frackers like Baytex and Chesapeake are dead in TD.
Roularta 90 million cash and cash flow, but business doing minus 9 percent each year.........Manitou has seen a big drop in orders. Profitabilty could go back to 2015 , meaning 30 million in profits, putting it on a P/E of 15 gives, 450 million
15/11: Greenyard, liabilities minus current assets gives 800 million " debt ", with 90 million ebitda i doubt the stock has any value. Wiet bubble, exploded. Cisco, Nvidia weak. TD. Vopak done its rally, tanks will be full in TD. Was wrong on SAP. OK value. K+S balance sheet will be tested during TD. TKH since long weak cash flows.
14/11: Bekaert Eur 200 million in free cash flow is strong. Groupe Casino 1 billion cash burn in 1H2019, even if you exlcude working cap change.
RWE burns 4 billion in cash, most companies with dreadfull cash flows. EVS and Solvay in TD. KBC not yet. MNI and LEE running out of cash.K+S warned yet again
12/11: SES, bad figures, sell. The figures of Exxon and GE show the US economy is under a dark cloud....dark age next few years.
Many companies i look at have bad cash flows, dark age....
Exxon actually drained 1 billion ytd, a short in trumpdepression.
Infineon and DPW with cash drains ytd. Wienerberger is probably the strongest company in Europe, you need bricks and tiles. Heijmans ok value at 7.7. Conti with trumpdepression and dark age warning. Remember that like in the great depression it is goldman who makes the moves...…..and even knows your positions...…..Solvay corrected figures weak, after retake provision some Eur 50 million in Q3 as profit, though cash flows are strong. Expedia, booking and trip, TD in nrs. Bubbles deflating.BIC on 15 times PE
Wienerberger going strong, Bpost : i think there is a potential further 25 percent mail decline coming, salaries will have to be lowered , even then a 200 million los looks possible to me. Umicore, back to sell, zero free cash flow in 1H. Bekaert up nicely. Fiat - Peugeot looks nice.
Exxon with meager 2 billion free cash flow, can go down 70 in trumpdepression
Yup the trumpdepression warnings are in. US steel and AKS steel : stock worthless and risk of bankruptcy. Recticel, Covestro. GE still burns 1 billion in 2019. BNP and Deutsche bank with leverage above 1 on 25.
They will blow the zone into the dark age. TF1 warned, on 15 times. Santander weak. Chipotle overvalued. Estee Lauder warns
Ubisoft dropped its bom. Was overpriced since long.
ABI and Amazon worthess in trumpdepression, Q3 concers. F burned 5 billion in 2019 underluying, Daimler burns too. CIR, 2 million free cash flow in 2019, debt.
Crown Castle, 300 million free cash flow 9months for 60 billion market cap, giant real estate bubbel
Look at Dorel Industries ( owner of Maxi Cosy, Canondale ) fully trumpdepression, margins hit, balance sheet an issue and burnt 40 million in 1H19 and getting worse.
Orpea ( balance sheet an issue ) , stock extremely overvalued. Remy too
With more then 100 million cash burn in 1H19, econocom is a dead canary
Wirecard creamed. Even CIR in problems, only Eur 2 million in profit. And even balance sheet problems.
JC Decaux is also zero free cash flow if you take into account the lease repayments.
Ter beke was still sligthly expensive. Cash flows of ter beke are strong. Hugo boss getting pushed down. Even BASF had a meager Q2 with only 280 million net profit.
Heidelbergcement is a clear case why you better look at cash flows then profits. First exceptional gains in the nrs, second retake of provisions.
Free cash flows more Eur 500 million so still on 22 times free cash flow.
Buy bear trackers on Nasdaq.
Never forget it is goldman who rules the market he.......They were also responsible for the big moves in the great depression. Exxon 1H19 was zero free cash flow, stock can crash 70 percent in TD.
Vopak back to 46.....told you......crude tanks will be full during trumpdepression. Danone also nice. How to value heidelberg cement. 600 million free cash flow , putting it on 15 times free cash flow gives 9 billion. An example why germany is a distaster, Leoni, 400 million cash drain in 1H19
I actually do not see any stock to buy in Europe. Even CIR ( italy ) burned 50 million in 1H19. Steel stocks crashed nicely he. LT average , will be , 500 meaning Arcelormittal, Thysssen, US Steel worthless. Fugro also continues to burn. In greece , MIG continues to burn 50 million in 1H19
Goldman issued a crash alert recently, like 1929. Nasdaq looks 1929.....Brexit could cause deflationary meltdown. Trumpdepression means sitting in the garden.
Tomtom with zero free cash flow in 1H19. Corbion also bad.
Thomas Cook was expected, next tourist bankruptcy Europcar. Lufthansa and Air france since long weakened balance sheets, Pierre Vacance too.
Will publish a note with highly overvalued stocks shortly.
If nasdaq remakes its 30 style move, should fall from 8000 to 1600 points. Amazon works out zero in trumpdepression. Buy bear trackers on Nasdaq. Boskalis also with a huge cash burn.
Overal message is that cash flows are becoming weaker. German economy suffering from trade war just look into the free cash flows of bellwethers like Daimler, BMW, GEA.....bad. Conti also bad. Draegerwerke and Bam ( -160 million in 1H19) with very weak cash flows. Other weak cash flows are Casino, ( burn 1 billion in 1H19), Carrefour, SGS, Bois sauvage ( 0 in 1H19 ). US steel further warned, worttless like Arcelormittal, THyssen, Salzgitter. Bank of ireland very weak if you leave out exceptional items. ( I always test 5 percent default on loans and then see the impact ). many bank stocks worthless then. Best bank in Europe in terms of profitability is kbc. Strongly overvalued stocks are ASML, Philips, Vivendi ( all bad free cash flows ). Deutsche Post also with a huge burn. Imerys and Forfamers also bad. Imerys 10 million free cash flow. Balance sheet can become an issue. Forfarmers burning. BASF with a meager 600 million in free cash flow. EVS with only 5 million free cash flow in 1H19. Deceuninck only 5 million too, debt shut up to 150 million. Overvalued.....
HP looks cheap here at 18$
Most stocks can go down 80 percent by 2022
Not dead chuckies :-) Trumpdepression is Trumpdepression. Valuation in big deflation is more art then science.....Steel prices down, full demographic cliff in 2019 he. Bekaert and recticel reported strong.
Jumbo 10 precent cheaper and Colruyt could even become lossmaking. Daimler, BMW could go broke. Do not need a car anyway to drive to stupid locations. Enjoy the breeze on your skin.
Amaponzi pummeled, FAANG bust, trumpdepression in full force.
Tesla burner, Casino motherholding almost broke,
John Deere signals trumpdepression, valloureq continues with cash drains in Q1.
KBC, how long loan loss provisions stays at 0,16 percent ? Thomas Cook , plunge on balance sheet and free cash flow, like Air France. Umicore wacked.
Imerys is cheap at 10 times free cash flow.Bayer bankrupt soon on Monsanto ?
Arcelormittal zero free cash flow in Q1, trump threathens german car makers, most of them are on 25 times industrial free cash flow. Deutsche Post with a meager free flow of 0.5 billion this year.
Business has slowed like expected from the spending wave, TD. You have also seen it a the inventory build up with a lot of companies......, Solvay warned Eur 500 million free cash flow at 15 times gives 7,5 billion vs 10 billion reported. Imerys with asbestos problems, Forfarmers weak. Ontex severly overvalued. Osram burning cash of Eur 100 this year. Aedifica giant bubble if you take depreciation into account. I calculate a mere Eur 25 million in net profit. Postnl zero free cash flow if you take into account the sale leaseback repayment. Perrigo looks cheap on free cash flow metrics
GE still burns trough 1,2 billion in Q1, Tesla 2 billion, AMG warned, huge inventory buildup was canary in the coalmine like with Umicore. ZAlando still showing the business model does not work.FNG still in cash burn, strange accounting. Independent News and Media bougth by the belgians.....
Philips still burns cash in Q1, Exxon, working cap corrected only 1,2 billion in free cash flow, overvalued. Despite overvaluation FB, Amazon still going strong, despite overvaluation. 3M cutting jobs.
WDP is idd a giant bubble, Akzo too expensive, ASM International going strong. Want to know the best analyst ever, Robbie Wouters Jo Hambro
Outright expensive stock Wirecard, Biomerieux, Remy Cointreau, SAP too.
Huge warning from the Umicore bubble, Melexis is also a semiconductor bubble, like Nvidia
Knock out bid on the biggest recticel assets. Good for bois sauvage. Pacquot will sell. Strange move from Kingspan, sign their operations are performing at peak. Alcoa, Arconic still draining cash. Manpower with good figures, stock was cheap on 11 times free cash flow. Sligro draining cash after their big sale; Schlumberger a hefty cash drain in Q1 , a short. Basic - fit too expensive. Netflix, still big cash burner.
Umicore still trading on 60 times free cash flow, a mega short with battery uncertainties. Mota engil with still heavy balance sheet and a lot of minorities. Not worth a lot. Rio and Vale : nice free cash flows, the kings of mining iron ore...but china is 55 percent of demand of iron ore and there are 65 million empty appartements in China......Russian oil companies like Lukoil, Gazprom doing well at current oil prices. Fagron a bubble at Eur 17. Dia, almost broke.
Wirecard idd an Enron bis, look at the cash flows. Rosenbauer with huge inventory buildup like so many companies ( Draegerwerke for example ) , RTL ok value here. Carrefour, only a meager Eur 200 million cash flow. Worldline, a big bubble. Zalando crap. Greif , Terex fully valued. Tessenderlo : zero free cash flow. Deutsche post : only 0,5 billion free cash flow this year. Mediaset still crappy. Gea, meager Eur 1OO million free cash flow. Amg with a buy back but huge invenoty build. Akka technologies looks an Econocom bis. Suedzucker with zer ebit this year. Kendrion was also overhyped. TKH, very meager free cash flows, was overhyped.
Tesla going broke, like Amazon. Eurozone zombified like Japan...bayer continues selling Roundup.
Evonik on 15 times free cash flow, fairly priced.
Tui, not cheap enough, bad balance sheet. Amazon lower pricing at Whole foods, Ahold Delhaize, Walmart will get hit. Deflationary undertone, valuation of assets tricky; Blackberry still giant bubble based on cash flows. Visa,Masercard, no moat in my view. bubble signs. Sony still more in financial company. Beidersdorf on 40 times free cash flow. Amazon at 1800 is a great short.
I will stop with this foolish madness, 1 april joke
Thomas cook also wrecked balance sheet, like 75 percent of the companies. Debenhams , shareholders close to wipe out. Fight between the biggest shareholder and lenders. Bekaert cutting the last jobs in Belgium :-). Bayer , a problem child with Monsanto.
Look what happened the last few years. Take a look at the french company Recylex. 2016-2017, huge stock rally. Nrs coming out : company still has negative equity, debt ballooning and still making losses, so stock crash.Bang & Olfsen since long a cash drainer.....stock rallied in 2016-2017 based on nothing. Crash justiefied. Many german companies draining cash like SGL Carbon. Commerzbank-DB merger would increase deflationary pressures. Aaple is still a prime deflation short, like Amaponzi. Trigano getting more interesting from a valuation point like Tupperware.
Fedex, zero free cash flows the last few years. BMW warned. Harley of he demograhic cliff. Less ski people in the Alpes.
And look the the cash flows of Kraft Heinz, already in 2017 you could have seen the pain coming.
Look at the inventory build up at Manitou, big divergence between P/L and cash flow, stock has already corrected.
Deutsche Telekom, ridicilous valuation only 2 billion free cash flow, valued at Eur 70 billion a bubble like RWE and E.ON
Groupe Casino with according to my estimates still a big Eur 300 million burn and weak balance sheet SES has good cash flows. RWE is shit
Intuit, Intuit Surgical, Amazon, Adobe, Salesforce, Apple all ridiculous high valuations. Sligro with actual cash drains. Bayer has a smell after the acquistion of monsanto. No free cash flows for the moment. Iliad, debt crash.
Some of our shorts working nicely lile Slumberger and oil services. And Econocom is even looking to hire a cash flow specialist for its 1H2019 reporting.....to make the nrs. Look for yourself. Belgian companies at there best.
Agfa burns 100 million, Forfamers warned. Accell, high volume, D'ieteren is it you. Short Nasdaq
Boeing is idd a short if you look at the balance sheet, pricing might become an issue of the planes.Seen the crash of Tarkett and Spie. STM was hammerd. In the 1930'ies, we had deflation in the beginning, now it will come at the end. Expect mega crash nasdaq augustus-september. There is no market dept, less investors so it is wild.
Draegerwerke also seeing huge inventory buildup.
Boskalis with its misery, 50 million free cash flow, Valloureq burns 400 million. Thyssen, Arcelormittal, etc in full depression crash. Balta can go broke, idd like 75 percent of european companies. Keep track of plan A, but think also B and C.
Corbion 28 million free cash flow, too expensive. Basic fit also too expensive. TD. Iphone price decline in China. Short Apple. Adobe, Salesforce, big bubbles. Check also current asset minus current liabiities , you pay them 100 times.
Looks like Belron is doomed. 1,6 billion debt.
Bois Sauvage is even a short a current levels, close to NAV. Berenberg confirmed as bad, Bekaert, ( see other text ) , stock fraud 2011, 2016 ?
Btw in April last year ( see attendence nrs ) there was a huge spike in audience. I stated on the Amazon board that Amazon is worth zero , they laughed but once i put in the full explenation started selling, goldman was long an took a hit. They almost filed a claim with the SEC for me and they sometimes manipulate my site. They removed the dead canaries. And btw every board guy confirmed this was the 1929-1933 remake. Some will never work again
Short every stock before earnings announcement, goldman does this.TD will show up in the nrs. So our old garbage companies reported. Bekaert, close to zero free cash flow, inventory buildup, Proximus around 400 ( including minorities ) bad. D'Ieteren, an interessting point and a bit like the same as AMG. Free cash flows bad at Dieteren auto, showing a severe slow down, and AMG with huge invenory build up. Future smells nasty. Sioen with a mere 10 million free cash flow.....We used to have good companies.....now not performing japanse cannoodles. It is clear there is a drastic slowdown ( inventory buildup ) 1929-1933 bis.....first dark rally
Clear that many companies have achieved peak performance like you can see on the graph " US spending wave, peak 2017. Like 1937. And performance is deteriorating, just look 1H figures of Recticel down 30 percent. Trades on 20 times free cash flow. UCB warns, Beiersdorf warned. Carrefour zero free cash flow, further cost cutting deflation. AVH, CFE ok. CFE balance sheet soso actually. Engie with zero free cash flow, lot of debt, also doomed. On ABI, did you know that beer is the worst drug , worse then cocaine or so. If alcohol would be invented today, it would be banned from day 1. Booking with bad figures, HPQ with zero free cash flow in Q1. GET THOSE BEAR TRACKERS ON THE NASDAQ. AMAZON AND APPLE WILL GO BROKE. APPLE WILL MAKE 20 BILLION LOSSES, AMAZON AWS IS GONE GET DEFLATED AWAY. 1930 STYLE CRASH COMING, CHECK DRY BULK INDEX, 630, CLOSE TO ALL TIME LOW AND NASDAQ IQ ALL TIME HIGH........SHOOOORRRTT. ECONOMY STOPPED.
Solvay, Wienerberger and Rio with decent nrs. Ahold too. All more or less fairly valued. Solvay, 20 times recurring free cash flow, Wienerberger 23, AHold 17. Rio, but iron ore chian leverage . Bayer smells bad. , actually no free cash flow excluding Monsanto. Risky deal....can it end bad for them. It does smell peak profit 1937 style.....600 trillion in derivatives, record debt of Eur 250 trillion, good jobs gone and you have to lie and cheat to get one, honest no job.....smells also 1929 a bit. No debt, cash rich and the banking system can idd fall out. Get your money out of the banks, Arco bis is waiting. ( And this time it could turn out violent when bankers screwed it up once more. BNP has still 200 billion in derivatives and equity tot total balance sheet ratio of 1 on 20. Quite frankly, the future is hefty. Lot of business closing in Antwerp.......dark ages. Expect a mega crash nasdaq end of the year.....
Aalberts and Basf on 20 times free cash flow, ok report from postnl but mail will decline till 2025, so lower wages, deflation. Cash flow weak. PSA and VW. Peugeot decent performance, group better then VW. VW cash flows are weak, PSA good. To come back on the real estate bubble, look at WDP. Operating cash flow adjusted for workign cap around 170 million for the year. Company has 2,8 billion assets. 2 billion is buildings which should be depreciated, take 30 years. So charge should be around 70 million. So operating cash flow minus 70 million gives 100 million minus 40 interest gives , no taxes gives 60 million. market cap is 2,9 billion so P/E of 50......The debt is now 1,4 billion. Not without risk in TD !!!!!!
You can buy a tie on internet delivered at your door for 2$ from china......tell me how the stores and us will compete.......i expect a mega crash at the end of the year.......And like GS stated, no liquidity in the market....Have a look at bear trackers on the Nasdaq. And think of getting your money out of the banking system is doomed. BNP still has two times of its equity in derivatives. Doomed. In antwerp, fameus restaurants like Dockx have closed and bar owners are worried.....Look at Exmar, Euronav, CMB, all making deep losses, doomed.....bad. Look at the evolution of the free cash flows of John Deere, you see TD taking place. Aedifica, confirmed, bad deal in the UK. Stock is a giant bubble. Crunch some nrs together : Operating cash flow of Aedifica close to 80 million, they have real estate assets of 1,7 billion. 1,2 is buildings and 500 land. These 1,2 needs to be depleted over 30 years, so there is a charge missing of Eur 40 million. 80 minus capex ( depreciation of Eur 40 million ) gives 40 , interest is 15 so net profit is 25 million or P/E of 60.....and with big debt.....Atenor big problem kid. Bad balance sheet Eur 350 million in debt.
Buffett sounds the alarm bell. Buffett is the 1929 player like in 2006-2008. It is still a question whether JPM, Wells Fargo , Apple will come out well in TD. Warned ceo's of buying back stock too expensively and sees again strange things like EBITDA. Orange has even invented a new term EBITDAal.....lol. Not sure with its debtload if it will be around for LT.
Wirecard smells idd like rotten fish, looks a bit ENron with all those acquisitions.....cash flows ugly like hell....lot of acquisitions....rotten. Kraft Heinz Food same shareholders as ABI....same style....same bankruptcy.
Suedzucker also TD'ed. Cash flows now in cash drain, restructuring.
Good time for a bear tracker on tha nasdaq.
Look at how Orange and Accor with messy reporting. Making the nrs........Orange even trumpdepression is hitting the likes of Goodyear. Only 100 million in free cash flow and a weak balance sheet. Can it sink ? Leoni and GEA also hit by TD. Look at those cash flows, companies bleeding cash. Quoted real estate like Montea, Aedifica a bubble. Esprit seeing insider buying, stock down 99 percent since 2007, could be a turnaround case. TF1 performance improving, on 14 times free cash flow, slightly undervalued.
Tripadvisor still on 40 times free cash flow, CGG and Vallourec making huge cash drains. Draegerwerke too. BNP, Soc Gen : low loan loss provisioning not sustainable in trumpdepression. Banks still on leverage of 1 on 20. Better your cash under the matress. D'ieteren, not certain, Belron full debt meaning valuation not so low. Sell Bekaert at Eur 25.
CTT, mail decline eating the profits, stock zero
Kinepolis on 30 times free cash flow, like Coca Cola ( cash flows of Coke are steady over the last 10 years ). EVS fairly priced or even overpiced at Eur 21, nice div yield of 4 % net. Corrected profit of EVS ( excluding tax gain is ) Eur 20, but this is a sport year so oneven year gives 8 million net proft drop meaning the average comes out at Eur 16 million , this on 15 times P/E gives 240 million vs the current Eur 280 in market cap. Heijmans, correctly priced at Eur 10.5; 10 year of operating losses ended...
Bam figures strong, 90 million free cash flow, could become a buy. Wolters showing it is a strong cie with castle and moat but nrs look a bit light and on 30 times free cash flow if you add the acquisitions......Ageas, 15 times corrected earnings, fairly priced at Eur 42. Besi showing the hay days for Iphones are over.
Car sales further dropping. Trumpdepression.Deflation to hit. End of the year we hit a mega crash.
Plastic omnium, aven after the crash on more then 20 times free cash flow, balance sheet soso. Michelin had 2 billion drain on raw material prices, but in 2015 when commodities crashed it had around 1 billion in free cash flow, so this reads bad for Michelin. Sell. SBM is gushing cash. DSM performance fantastic.KBC still rips of the clients fantastically. Renault figures show the leasing bubble in credit cars, if you look into detail, these auto groups could explode in trumpdepression. Sipef will be lossmaking in 2019....too expensive.
15/01 : Heineken and Vopak on more then 20 times free cash flow. Good companies but bit expensive. Vopak is since years in a trading range 37 - 44. In eternal stagnation you could do some trading in this range.
X-fab crappy, too much intercompany stuff in the Duchatelet group. Akzo is a short at current levels. Check the difference in net profit and free cash flow. 200 million change in provisions. Free cash flow close o zero vs net profit of 455.
Randstad, 600 million free cash flow, trades on 14 times, relatively cheap.
Air france KLM still zero free cash flow if you take leasing into account. Balance sheet still weak like 70 percen of european companies.
It never comes back in Europe, deflation, austerity till the end. Harsh if we do not revolt.
For the US, first dark rally, then crash till 2022. Dow Jones till 3500. And , according to demograhics, we might hit the highs again of 30.000 by 2047. Ouch
Banks show we are still in the 1930 ies time frame. D'ieteren stock is getting attractive. Some stocks are getting better in valuation. There is talk of a dark rally after, dow jones till 35.000 and then a full deflation crash till 3500.....yes, put 30 deflation on some nrs and it sounds scary, but we could rally here a bit, dark rally. Trump wants to bring down drug prices. Kellogg on 20 times free cash flow, fairly valued. Likes of Expedia and Booking, severly overvalued. Air france KLM zero free cash flow if you take the leasing into account
Umicore with a warning and huge inventory build up . Since long a sell.
Price ware in retail coming. Jumbo would be 11 percent cheaper then Colruyt. Ubisoft, giant bubble, zero free cash flow. Estee lauder and chipotle good but overvalued. Arcelormittal, peak earnings achieved, cash guidence for expenses up to 6.5 billion not good. Dassault systeme, expensive but nice contract win. Fagron too expensive here.
Strange bankruptcy of gerry weber. Warnings of Melexis and Daimler. Daimler 2, 8 billion free cash flow in industrial part in 2018. Salzgitter warned too. Dry bulk and steel prices are crashing since 2 months, full trumpdepression ahead, demographic cliff he.
Bonduelle bad. CFE with actually a weak balance sheet, where a lot off one offs in the nrs. KPN fairly priced.
Amazon is still amaponzi, if you take option dilution into account, only 5 billion free cash flow. 90 percent downside in the name. Signify wheels coming off, led down 22 percent.
Harley stock is getting cheap, Sap even firing consultants. Stock expensive. Apple is just pricing. Royal mail sees further drop in mail demand. Shares worthless like Deutsche post, bpost, postnl as mail decline eats all the profits. Philips ok. Gamestop looks cheap. Followed the bankruptcy of PG&E a bit. Utulity liable for fire caused by its equipment......Debenhams ask land lords to cut rent.
29/01: Greenyard, real debt closer to Eur 600 million because there is a working cap deficit. With Eur 60 million in ebitda you do not cover the debt. Stock worthless , company broke and Heinz Deprez had debt on his holding cie so also broke. Warnings from Cat, Whirhlpool. If Whirhpool crashes a lot, might be worth a closer look.
Balance sheet issues, Greenyard. Telecom Italia and Fiat also still issues with this.
Healthcare costs in the US too high, companies like J&J will get crushed by lower pricing. Boot company Beneteau now more reasonably priced but not yet bargain.
Reading into nrs, Carrefour sees some improvement, trading on 15 times free cash flow at Eur 17, correctly valued. Idd AholdDelhaize putting in a strong performance. Stock fairly priced.For the rest, trumpdepression, 1937 figures. Stagnation, no crash here. Do not see many bargains, most companies have issues. The great depression ahead.
08/01 : Bit of rally , expected 07/01 : Trump still resembles Hoover bis. 1929 - 1933 04/01 : you could buy in Imerys forfarmers and danone 02/01 : An like told Apple got wacked as deflation short 01/01 : We need to act.........otherwise dark future .......25/12:
And yes panic, deflationary bust happening. How many big companies do you still know in Wallonia ? Eastern Island bis. Aedifica dangerous move in UK, Econocom can go broke like 75 percent of european companies.
The reality kicks in that most of our european companies are a bunch of garbage that can not compete against china. GEA sees huge china competition on price. European states will go broke....basically it is over. Bokrijk in the garbage bin. Frackers like Baytex are dead.
Colruyt removing Heineken from the shelves, asking for price declines. ABI can idd go broke, like 75 percent of european companies. Oil crash, Exxon, Chevron can go broke too.
Deutsche post suffering from the disease of mail decline. I think the stock is worthless like Bpost, Postnl. 10 percent declines in mail is deadly for the bottom line. In the south i see zero things to buy. The south never comes back....Interesting, colruyt asking for Heineken and Mars to lower prices, deflation. Low Bonar warned and looks to raise equity. A company to look at is Manitou, interesting name, good niche market. Valuation was stretched but is coming back. Oil crash, CGG , Vallourec now down 90 percent, bourbon fighting for survival.....Italy is already technically bankrupt.
Reality kicks in, the asset sale of a lifetime is happening because the next few years is trumpdepression. Game over. Forfarmers warned. I think even Exxon and Chevron can go broke in Trumpdepression. Oil crashing. Banks will go broke; No way a company like Van Lanschot can maintain this low loan default ratio. ABI had only 1 billion $ in free cash flow 1H18, if you think it can not go broke in trumpdeflation.....Bid on binckbank, pffff. Zalando warns, business model is worthless. Esprit taking further charges, could be a turnaround case. Insiders are buying
Car sales continue their decline. Panic selling here and there?
Caterpillar, MCD going strong, Chipotle still on 40 times earnings. Refresco with an expensive acquisition. PSA ok figures.SEB going very strong with good brands like Tefal. Gemalto warned. Europcar with a we
GE cash draining on 1H17. Balance sheet risk with pension liabilities. Accell and Philips Lightening overvalued here. Honeywell ok. Schlumberger on a P/E of 50, short.
Visa still strong until the middle class runs out of money. Johnson and Johnson ok but deflation risk here. Same goes for Microsoft. 10 to 15% deflation can lead in most cases to a 70% reduction in fair value.
Daimler, BMW, Volkswagen : emission scandal or acting together. Deflation is waiting for them.
Unilever and Sligro ok but too expensive here. Remy Cointreau on even a P/E of 45. IBM still in decline, like most of us :-). Apple : Iphone 8 caught get sold for 1100$....who will buy that ? Barco : a bit overvalued here. SAP : some weakness , near P/E of 35.
ASML still going strong, Harley warns its customers are too old to drive a bike, demography he. Chipotle hammered on once again a food safety scarce. Down 25% since i shorted at 450. Was P/E of 80 then.
Netflix no bubble, decent business model : in depression times people watch a lot of TV. Zalando , weak margins, P/E of more then 100.
JP Morgan with decent figures but credit growh slowing overal, which is normal in the winter.
ANF not getting sold. Huge lossmaker. Pepsi with OK figures.
Carrefour with its deflation warning. Already zero free cash flow for some year years.
General Electric getting hammered , already down 15% since my short sale, Chipotle also hammering. You do not pay 100 times earnings he.
Not too difficult to find companies on 40 times earnings. P/E of 15 looks more ok , before the big deflation knocks out the show.
IBA: warns, was valued as strong growth so you know what that means....Growth stocks will come under pressure. Even after the crash still on 40 times P/E 2016. Nope their is no bubble :-)
Orchestra Premaman with huge losses. Strange stores and errors in past reporting and a lot of acquisitions do not bode well. Microsoft, Nike : firing personnel. For Nike is that quite unique.Bed bath and beyond becoming cheap. Mattel: kids less Barbie then before.
Economic winter season. You do not pay the likes of Zalando, SAP, Salesforce, Vivendi more then 40 times P/E in winter. More like 10 to 13 times. Steel prices dropping for Arcelormittal. With 6 billion in Ebitda 3 capex, 0,5 CO'2 , 0,5 pension cost - tax you do not cover the USD 20 billion in net liabilities.
Colruyt buys back stock and Staples get a bid.
Schaeffer seeing deflation. Debenhams sees the consumer hit by Brexit. Exchange rate can cost debie 2% of margins. Philips, always expensive acquisitions and then the writedown a few years later. The biggest not to invest in big caps is expensive acquisitions. Philips on 40 times free cash flow, a sell here.
Oracle going strong, Corbion a good company, regret not buying in the low 20's.
Colruyt with its deflation, stock still expensive.Oil tumbling. Exxon, Chevron on P/E's of 50 now. Vallourec with a weak balance sheet.
Head of board of directors of BNP stated the traditional banking business model of deposits and lending does not work anymore due to low interest margin and defaults citing banco popular as good example.
Amazon taking over Whole Foods. They will likely lower prices and automate the cashiers. Deflation in the sector will get worse the likes of Ahold Delhaize, Kroger getting hit. Amazon too expensive. Deflation only getting started. Esprit also discounting in its stores.
Retail getting hit in the UK and the US. Kroger with deflation like expected, Debenhams, Next with a crumbling UK consumer. CGG filed for bankruptcy. Groupe Flo doing a cap increase at 0,10 a share. Non listed retailers like Hema and Blokker still posting losses. Commodity and emerging markets getting hit and not coming back before 2023. Ahold Delhaize had an EPS of 1,15 euro last year. This on 15 times P/E gives something like 16.5, not undervalued.Esprit crashing. They still focus on teen/30 year old. Somebody should tell them the average age in Europe is 42 better off with Damartex :-)
Oil hit. Exxon and Chevron are trading at P/E's of 40 at current oil prices levels, bubbels. Schlumberger is already a bit deflated.
I value Balta at 240 million, 12 times the adjusted earnings ( after capital hike ) of the last three years. came to the market at Eur 475 million. Exmar since 2014 suffering from oil depression.
Caltagirone editore leaving the stock market on the cheap, only the value of the listed assets, probably it was the cheapest stock in Europe. Dryships still going for leverage after the LT stockholders lost 99% of their value.
The typical dump of Umicore stock by the CEO at the peak of the cycle. Sell. Most tech names ( Like STM ) trading 50 times earnings or more of the last 10 years, bubble bub....Amazon even is having cash drains if you take the capital leasing into account. Placing in Rocket internet, a sign of the time. Sony also in bubble. Oil refiners like Motor oil and Saras benefiting from the low oil price. Balta too expensive in IPO. Who buys carpet with so many having allergies ? A hotel room with carpet is no go for me.
Etam taken private, was still one off the last cheap stocks indeed. Realdolmen ok, fairly valued at 15 times corrected earnings after tax.
Duro almost broke, day after Banco Popular. RWE, E.ON : doubt whether this rally is sustainable with exit from nucleair early 2020 ' ies.
Popular taken over for 1 euro. Ageas ok valuation here, was it not for the risk of the distribution channel takeover of BNP. Bid on SIPH by Michelin. Macys warns, demographic cliff he. Greenyard too expensive.
Spanish bank Banco Popoular in troubles, since long. US will have a competitve advantage with CO'2 norms, europe like always, pays the price. Bad for car companies
Exmar will need to pay up, in trouble.D'ieteren strong but priced in. Oil dipping again watch Chevron, Exxon.
Tankers like OSG and Euronav suffering from deflation. Arcelormittal buys Ilva, big lossmaker. JP Morgan and BAC admitting trading revenues are down 15% in Q2. Soon credit demand wil drop. In the winter no need for further products or services, hunkering down. What to think about the Balta IPO ? Well the company has a turbulent history with a lot of restructurings ( restructurings look like common expense ) and the balance sheet is weak so , not really interesting i fear.
Janssens family buying Eur 3 million in UCB, she does not follow the Benjamin Graham method, that is for sure :-). Or has it something to do with Amgen ? Remember UCB refused to be bought by Amgen......Fountain: drank the product for years by default in the office, ugly coffee. No wonder the company is where it is now.
Keyware going nicely. Last undervalued stock on Euronext Brussels. Bam too expensive. Sibelco recurring profit drops from Eur 120 million to 30 million in 2016. Natuzzi still lossmaking in Q1. ANF 70 million $ loss for Q1.
Steel prices under severe pressure. Arcelormittal to Eur 5 even after the stock split. Normalized Ebitda closer to 6 billion $ then you do get this as fair value.
How to value UCB. Let us take the Benjamin Graham method. ( see my blog ) 800 million profit for the average next five years adjusted for goodwill gives a value of 9 billion, market cap is 12,5 so the crash is not an opportunity to buy , graham would buy at 6 billion. Shows we are in an asset bubble.
The way companies report can be a good sign of rotten fish, take Ubisoft like i explained below or Salesforce. GAAP vs NON GAAP earnings, it makes a huge difference. Non gaap does not include stock option expenses ( is a cost like Buffett stated ) . In GAAP Salesforce losses are increasing. Stock extremely overvalued ( think it has 70% downside ) and shows companies try to make the nrs. Salzgitter also huge positive one offs in. Actually lossmaking if you leave them out. Danone ok with 16% margin target, a buy around Eur 57. Gazprom very weak free cash flows, not worth a lot, this Putin stock. Akzo on 40 times free cash flow if you take the pension costs out which are not in the P/L , so the bid of PPG is very generous , without bid it will drop like a stone. Sabca losses. Boskalis stating in its annual report we are in the middle of the storm that has started in 2016, Euronav citing the same storm. Boka on 20 times P/E. My readers know which storm it is, and it is going to get ugly. UCB : romo in doubt. There was romo in the stock so the -14% looks justified, like the minus for Brazil. Neutral on UCB and Tubize after the drop
Do i see buy opportunities in the brazilian mess in the likes of Vale, Petrobras, Gerdau. No. Petrobras too much debt , Vale still expensive on normalized iron ore , gerdau not ok. European companies like ABI, Carrefour hit but still more then 20 times P/E or more so no buy ideas here. You see however markets can crash by 15% in any minute.
Let crunch some nrs on Ubisoft : full year results published and you can identify a full crap press release : First the focus is on non IFRS results. Already a bad sign. Secondly, the company activates R&D, a very weak sign. Looking at the P/L the company discloses Eur 100 million in net profit, but if you take the R&D activation and employee stock option expense into account, then it more looks like a loss of 30 million. If we then use the Benjamin Graham approach for their mid term outlook i arrive at a valuation of 1 billion Euro, currently valued at 4,7 billion euro. A mega crap story from the Vivendi crap story
OCI with deflation, like most of us. Arcelormittal is expensive unless if you believe that protectionism will be winning and globalization is over, the stockis cheap. Make your guess....
If you do a bit of nr crunching on Nyrstar you will see the stock is interesting here from a risk/reward perspective. 50% chance of going broke, 50% chance of success by 2023 as commodities will have turned. ( not sooner ) I value it at Eur 5.5 using my DCF method and this 50/50 methodology.
Vivendi : complete abuse of Bollore of the company. Big difference between Q1 P/L figures and cash generation of Vivendi. Not gonne get a happy ending. More than 70% downside on the name. Richemont , Swatch : austerity and trumpdepression biting.
Arcelormittal and Thyssen, weak cash generation, too expenisive. Nordstrom and Macys seeing impact from Trumpdepression. Strange move by Vivendi. Recticel warns. Solarworld bankrupt. Proximus - KBC fully valued.
Look at the figures of BAM, still in big crisis actually like Heijmans, stock expensive like most stocks. Refresco expenisve, Aegon missing funds, Altice on a debt bubble, Vallourec struggling to survive. ANF
looking for bids, Ahold Delhaize going for more price investments. Deflation starting to bite like Henkel just mentioned. Price war between Amazon and Walmart. Amazon on P/E of 225
ING, BNP : publishing good figures. One thing you must now that the young do not take credit. You should be a fool with such job uncertainty to take much credit. Together with the loan defaults, banks business plans look shaky if not game over.... The good like Bekaert and Wolters going well, but all and more is in the stock price. Zero buys in Europe, a few holds.Multiples will contract due to too much crisis like Blankfein stated. Most on 30 times, could go to 10 times P/E. History does repeat.
Agfa weak, ceo nyrstar buys stock, now at Eur 2 million recent insider buys.
Postnl Q1 nrs. Weak. Still have fair value at Eur 3.8.....Colruyt, Delhaize, Carrefour on 20 times earnings...will take long time before buying.
Oil crash. Heavy impact on mainly Chevron, Exxon, Petrobras, etc. Oil at 45 $ would see Chevron free cash flow in the region of 2,5 to 3 billion $ on 2019. Putting this on 15 times free cash flow gives 45 billion $ , market cap of Chevron is 200 billion $. Can make the same reasoning for Exxon,etc. Of course for those consuming oil it is good.Good deflation for Air france. Brunel suffering from oil depression.
Facebook strong but valuation too heavy, ABI going strong, valuation Ok. Nyrstar can go broke. Miners like Vale, Arcelormittal, Cliff all down. Cliff can go broke. AMG strong ( Lithium interesting ) valuation difficult. Verisk crashing ( one we were short in our short porfolio ) was on 40 times. Ulta beauty also on 40 times free cash flow. Kraft Heinz seeing sales drop, even cutting back on some products.
Was on 35 times free cash flow.
It is going to get ugly. Siemens , VW ok but fully priced.
Peak car in the US visible as car sales come down 7% yoy in April. GM-Ford hit. D'ieteren wants to reduce its car exposure with a minority shareholder for Belron. Older and younger people drive less then before. Solvay going strong. Apple showing signs of weakness. The canary still thinks this will become the symbol of what happens in big deflation : first expensive products will not be bought anymore, then companies will panic and slash prices.
Trump considering the great depression split up ( Glass Steagall act ) of commercial and investment banks. Bad for the casino's of JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs. Returns will come down. Some fearing a great depression ? TKH, DSM, Grandvision coming up with good nrs, but priced in for me. The good news is priced in a lot of names. Sold my CTT shares. Have very few stocks in portfolio. No Euronav in deflation for me. Ca still go don a lot ( 50 vessels $ 20 million - minus debt would give.......)Consider not buying before Dow Jones 6.000.
Despite what one could think, Amazon is reporting operating profit declines in Q1 and Q2 compared to last year. If they can manage to have a good Q4 profit , earnings could be stable. Putting this on 20 times earnings gives us 90$ a share, downside of 90%. Goldman likes it :-).Vallourec can go broke, Exxon, Chevron , GE could be in danger.Intel good nrs, stock relatively good value. UCB also a strong company. Total still sees high oil stocks. In the deep winter a lot of companies will go broke. Misery will be among us.
I see nothing to buy in europe, nothing. Le Pen risk is completely forgotten in french assets prices....Bic is a good company, was just loved and too expensive , Telenet expensive. Exmar bullshit. Tessenderlo deflation risk. Banks meltdown risk. Fiat doing pretty ok but free cash flows not strong. Vallourrec huge losses. US steel : -25%
Mcdonalds, 3M, Caterpillar, CMG going relatively strong. I just have problems with the multiples being paid on CAT and CMG. Companies like GE and Coke are cutting costs to save the bottom line. Tough times for the middle class.Credit Suisse cap increase. Bank stock speculative stock like we found already out in Italy. Are we are going to find it now out in France and the US ? We will see. Do not count Marine out. P/E multiples of 30 to 40 times make no sense. Euronav not my cup, nor Deceuninck or Recticel, too expensive. JP Morgan: interesting to short here ( $87 ). Same goes for Exxon and Chevron if you believe in a Marie win and Trumpdepression. Dead middle class canaries do not drive to work. Big in the indexes and in the oil etf. Makes up 50% of an average oil etf these Exxon and Chevron. The free cash flow generation we have seen in 2016 is a disaster if you leave out assets sales. Only 1 billion for Exxon and -6 billion for Chevron. We have to sustify 330 billion $ in market cap and 210 billion in market cap. A big stinking ETF and index bubble. I would even go further. Both companies balance sheets are not strong, pension liabilities. We are in for something strange.
Besi, Randstad going strong. Most semis like Besi or Nvidia doing very well, question remains if end product prices ( car, iphones ) are under pressure, will they feel the deflation too. Huge reporting week coming.UNCERTAIN TIMES MEANS LOW MULTIPLES.
Macron boost. Stocks trading at P/E's of 30 on such uncertain times. Hmm. Honeywell good. Philips on 35 times free cash flow. Vivendi on 40 times free cash flow adjusted for balance sheet and stakes at dcf value. Orpea on 50 times free cash flow.And if you think all is well, have a look at General Electric. Cash drain of 1,6 billion in q1 on the industrial part, 2.2 billion in overall. No tangible equity in GE. We are in for something special, 1929 loo a like. Covered my short on Schlumberger, up 20% on this.
Walmart stepping up the price war. Prices in Walmart are 3 to 5% lower then they were last year. In 2015 they stated they would keep prices 15% below their competitors in 85% of the cases. Will do pain to the likes of Ahold Delhaize and Kroger. Michelin going strong. Philips Lightening ok but what about LT outlook. Visa ok, but even Munger questions LT how we will pay. Mattel suffering. Trump looking into steel imports. US steel and Arcelormittal look expensive on normalized steel prices.
Whether all the risks are priced in, is a big question. The likes of Ubisoft, Orpea ( good company ) , Pernod Ricard, ASML, Vicendi still trading at P/E's of more then 25. Not really priced in. Vandevelde warns. Apple squeezes its suppliers like Nokia did in its heydays.
Some first signs of Trumpdepression in the reporting of the likes of Goldman, IBM, etc. Expext more of this. ASML and Heineken going strong but on a P/E of 30.
Galapagos in a bubble, Arcelormittal down like expected. Volkerwessels hitting the stock market, beter off with Heijmans. Ubisoft also very expensive.
Commodities knocked down. Arcelormittal , Rio, Vale, all were and still are overvalued. Commodities will come back around 2023 with the next emerging market boom, not before.
Chinese banks already under strain since 2014. Meltdown probable by 2018-2019, which together with Trump measures could take us to war. The likes of Michelin, Accor, Bureau Veritas , Remy Cointreau and other stock trading at P/E of 25 not ready for a communist or extremist french president. BNP Paribas balance sheet not deleveraged, could turn into a mess.
Looks like the best bank in the US is rotten to the core, Wells Fargo. European banks still on more than 20 times leverage. Altice also a bubble. Trump rally ( 1937 rally ) over. Now waiting for Dow Jones 6.000 by 2019. Time to short the deflation heck out of it. Accell in M&A, not D'Ieteren but Pon
With geopolitical tensions increasing , we should pay less then 25 times earnings on the likes of Beiersdorf, L'oreal, etc. End 1937 we paid 10 times for them.
Lonmin with still huge cash drains, expensive panera bread. Jp morgan with " something is wrong with the US " . A lot of dead canaries coming jamie. Dead canaries and retired canaries consume less, heavy deflation.
Auto and retail stocks like Abercrombie and BMW getting dumped, normal due to demographics and a broken middle class. Dead canaries will not buy.
Ford and GM showing deflation is in the house. Auto peak in pricing will soon be the past.
Blackberry still cranking up losses. OSG also not interesting. Italian banks still more dead then ever. Boeing 747 list price 380 million $, what will it look like after the great deflation ?
Abengoa shareholders wiped out. 95% of balance sheets in the south of europe are bad. Game over.
In 1937 the rally stalled end of March, think it will be the same. Just shorting the thing, and come back or buy back when the dow jones hits 6.000 points. Not any buy idea i see in europe....Sif also lot of oil & gas
Let us have a closer look at Exxon. Last year with average oil at 47 $ the company had an operating cash flow of 25 billion $. It expects production growth of 2 to 3% next years with capex of 22 to 25 billion $ a year so free cash flow will be limited to a few billion $ with oil at 48, but we need to explain 330 billion $ in market cap. It is going to be a wild ride the next few years. Nyrstar CEO bought for 1 million euro of stock at higher levels then the current stock. A believer.
The bear is still alive, trump reflation bullshit getting crashed. Only the start of the sale of a lifetime. We will see where the likes of Amazon, Chevron, Exxon, JP Morgan will be trading in 2019. Down 70% i bet.
Went to a local investor event, and you can find some froth. High multiples being paid in private and quoted companies. Ontex, Aedifica, AVH, Recticel, Bekaert getting expensive. VGP a bubble. Some arrogance with investors
IBA : trading on P/E next five years of 25, just too expensive, even with the positive outlook ( cancer treatment at 25.000 euros, which government can pay that ? ). No Basic Fit here. Ford warns of waning car demand.
Sears warns it might go broke, Trumpdepression in the winter. Keyware run by crooks and thieves, but stock rather cheap. Financials getting trashed in the US. In the deep winter, loan losses will deepen. Ontex rushing for a cap increase. UCB vimpat : no problem with the patent, Tubize is more than ok.
First bear strike. X-fab to the stock market, can not believe you buy one stock in it due to conflict of interest with the Duchatelet group. Same goes for valueing Melexis, not so easy to value.
Ebay CEO stated Q4 of last year was the last Q4 for the old habit of retailing , most will have to restructure. Canary now short JP Morgan. Aedifica rushing for a cap increase , too expensive
Volkswagen family shareholder Piech wants to sell its stake in Porsche holdings, insider selling in VW. Peak auto in pricing ? Fugro and Brunel suffering from oil depression. Savencia going strong. Mr Bricolage struggling showing France is not OK. Arcelormittal going for Ilva, i would short Arcelormittal in the 8,5 zone, ebitda of 6 billion normalized means an overvalued stock. Hugo boss suits too expensive like its stock. EDF, Engie with their misery. Stocks not worth a lot due to old reactors.
Next week no comments, i am off. But dr oil and dr copper given the signs we are heading for the sale of a lifetime. Ctt with decent figures. 10% dividend yield.Accell going ok. Roularta ok but expensive.
Big warning shot in the oil market, record stocks, you know what that means....AMG, Carrefour, Ctac : just too expensive. Caterpillar , searching the books for tax fraud. Bid on Akzo, they have pension issues. BHP states iron ore will come down.
Boskalis, stock was still trading at level of the good times, warns. And typical what to expect : will cut good middle class office jobs. Middle class is toast, big deflation and crashes to come. Adidas going strong, GBL ok.
Analyst meeting of Chevron : interesting, the dividend will not be covered by operations in years to come at 50$ a barrel. Once oil collapses due to depression, expect Chevron crash. Deutsche post : lot of one offs, free cash flow not that strong. Nyrstar : big insider buy. Ontex at a P/E of 20
TKH on 20 times free cash flow. Bois sauvage decent figures, stock fully valued. Heijmans, after a bad sale of the belgian activities, a very good sale of their german operations, which cleans up the balance sheet mess. D'ieteren going ok, but the group has to take for years impairment charges...moleskine more a thing of the past i fear.
Geox with only Eur 2 million of profit, trading more on a price to hope value, like AMG Deoleo with Eur 180 million loss. Gigaset almost bankrupt. Deutsche Bank with a share sale. Hamon close to bankruptcy. Corbion ok valuation.
Barnes and Noble suffering for years , it continues. Crox and other fashion retailers like Abercrombie are suffering but valuations more look like buys then sells. Semiconductor cycle for ASM international still going strong.
Bekaert raised LT margin guidence, positive but Hold the shares. Tessenderlo : LT question about the spread between SOP and MOP. Normally they converge on the LT, which would be terrible for the margins. Picanol still going strong. Salesforce : big diffirence between GAAP and Non GAAP numbers. Option dilution is a cost which make the shares a bubble. Zalando : margins under pressure. ABI too expensive.JC Decaux : on P/E of 30.
Vicat on 20. Ahold Delhaize on 20. Smartphoto on P/E of 40
We now have Air Warren and Warren techno. I the end we all end up as fools. Priceline, remarkable that a site like booking.com can make so much money. It is better to have to virtual hotel then the real hotels ( very capital intensive, ask Accor, who wants to get rid of them ) . Nvidia , a bubble or not ? Ageas : typical example of what is going to happen in deep winter with negative rates. Many pension funds of big companies will have to ask for new capital. Salesforce : free cash flows of this company are soso. A short ?
AVH,Aalberts, CFE : decent but valuations are full.
Sioen on P/E of 20, cautious on trump and Brexit. Recticel soso free cash flow. Eramet too expensive. CGG and Vallourec going bust. Philips on 28 times free cash flow, conviction buy, lol. Postnl a bit overvalued.
And there goes the Vivendi crap, crash, stands at 40 times free cash flow 2017, will cover at 15 times. Solvay , Belgacom ok, no bubble. Saint Gobain, BASF : paying more than 20 times earnings. Fugro and Brunel in oil depression. Arcelormittal : my fair value is Eur 1,5 with 6 billion $ ebitda. We are in for the sale of a lifetime in 2017. No free cash flow in Orange. Now short on the CAC40. Most index members are trading 20 to 30 times free cash flow with banks with leverage of 1 on 20 on their balance sheet. Wait until you see the sale of a lifetime.
Tesla, will this work ? Looks a bubble. Think Netflix has a business plan, no bubble. IBA, promising future already in the valuation of the company. Axa, ok. Strong insurer. Deceuninck sharp drop in 2H performance. UCB going steady.
PSA coming up strong, what about car pricing. Veolia and Vallourec : bad balance sheets. Orange expensive.
Wolters going strong, the world leader in " technical " ( legal,etc ) publications. Stock fairly valued. Wendel still with big leverage, GBL the better holding then. Accor on 35 times free cash flow, very expensive. Airbus ok. Ter Beke on more than 20 times earnings. Nyrstar with its misery. Bayer also more then 20 times 2016 earnings.
Nokia on 25 times free cash flow, Vivendi even on 42 times free cash flow when adjusted for the stakes, Carrefour zero free cash flow. Bam also messy in the past with its cash flows , investments in PPP projects at ridicule margins.
Good to see the mega deal Kraft Heinz with Unilever being cancelled. A typical deflationary deal whereby decent jobs would get cut away. Unilever has good positions LT in growth markets better then Kraft Heinz. Stock a bit expensive tough. Boskalis write down on the non dredging part.Stock a bit expensive, like CFE, now that the peak years for dredging are over. Salesforce stock very expensive, Billabong, the surf company, still making big losses. Bombardier with a complicated balance sheet. It is clear that Potash and K+S are in crisis mode. Stocks still rather expensive like Grandvision and Vandevelde.
Vopak already a bit expensive for some time, but there are bigger bubbles out there. Kinepolis on 40 times free cash flow, a big love stock. Acomo on 15 times free cash flow. OK. Aegon OK but still a weak balance sheet. Biggest bubbles are to be found in the oil & gas sector : Exxon, Chevron ( Chevron burned 7 billion cash last year ) and Schlumberger. Telenet expensive.
Do not get the business model of Ordina, shares expensive. AirFrance-KLM 800 million one offs positive in 2016. Arcadis 65 million free cash flow. Ageas mainly invested in belgian grecco bonds. Best capital allocators can still be found at Berkshire. EVS still showing signs of underlying weakness. Heijmans : no capital increase but solvency very weak now. Sell after 30%gain
Danone decent. Problem with Akzo Nobel is difference between P/L and free cash flow : Eur 500 million of pension costs are not in the P/L. Rolls Royce : 40 times free cash.Ouch. Wessanen : P/E of 40, DSM 17 times free cash flow ok. Heineken on 22 times free cash flow.
Michelin on 20 times normalized free cash flow.Randstad, decent figures but business model undergoing drastic change.
Renault, yes decent nrs, but mainly cars sold by financing, up 5 billion. In debt we trust...Tarkett on P/E of 25. Campine, big postive one offs in 2014, 2015..not interesting.
Even Coca Cola is suffering big time. Operating cash flow down USD 900 million year on year to 7 billion $, market cap 180 billion. That is the problem. Nvidia and Adobe stock have been going through the roof. Umicore too expensive. Arcelormittal decent nrs, but capex up next year. Overvalued. If you like dividend yield the post CTT is on 9%. And they promised the canary to keep this dividend in the next few years. Business is in decline, but they own the last mile, which is a moat in my view. Not interested BPost, in a footprint on the Iberian peninsula ?
Total burning cash in 2016. The best of a bad bunch. Bad but Chevron is a better short.Nyrstar warning on Port Pirie. The redevelopment is in question. If it does not work , the company could go bankrupt. Sell the bonds and shares. Thyssenkrupp shares very overvalued , with the current ebit you do not cover the debt load of 5 billion euro and the 9 billion pension deficit in your DCF valuation model. Shares worthless. Barco overvalued too. KBC : one of the best banksters in town :-) ....strong core retail belgium franchise
Heijmans selling its belgian businesses for Eur 40 million, a very low price. Bad. Rio with strong nrs, quid China ? Melexis still going strong but you pay 30 times 2016 earnings. D'Ieteren going strong. BP states its need 60 $ oil. Chevron and Exxon are a big short. On Q4 nrs Chevron does not cover its more than 40 billion debt load, a big short. Vinci ok. TomTom is already expensive for years.The canary prefers to short US names
Apple could be hit hugely by the expected big deflation, Fagron with its misery, Airline companies like Ryanair seeing their ticket deflation. No bank or insurance stock like Ageas or BNP for this canary. Times too uncertain.
Huge one off gains in Deutsche Post ( Eur 1, 4 billion ) and Sonae making these stocks very expensive.
Amazon drops a bom, 6 billion $ of free cash flow if you take the charge on capital leasing as capex. 400 billion $ market cap. If that is not a bubble. Chipotle also a big bubble. Bid on Mead Johnson, Resilux. New York times on P/E of 40. US steel : big loss in 2016, but expects 3 $ eps in 2017. Royal duth shell : i do not see the strong free cash flow, close to zero for 2016. Some reports of peak oil in 2020. Sony drops another bom. DB huge loss.
Vopak still a bit expensive, Groupon almost dead.
Seadrill close to bankruptcy. CTT the mail incumbent in Portugal with a warning, if if drops further might be worth a closer look. Short position taken in Amazon
Can Apple maintain pricing of the iphone at 800$, or will we slide to 200 $ ( nokia repeat ) in the medium term ? Fitbit and Gopro getting crushed , a pity I did not shorted this. You saw this device meltdown coming....
GE on a P/E normalized of 40. Amazon on 150 times free cash flow. Chevron 2 billion operating loss, market cap of > 200 billion $. The bubbles are huge indeed. Run away or face wipe out. Bought bear tracker Eurostoxx 50. Colruyt has seen big insider buying, probably a sign we are heading for the poor house :-). Can not remember this size of buying in the name.
ST Micro P/E of 63 on 2016 figures. Euronav : if you take normalized vlcc tariffs ebit would be cut by Eur 100 million, was already Eur 50 million cap gain in nrs, you do not cover the debt load so not worth a lot. Once had a roadshow with shale producer Baytex, unsustainable business model like most shale producers, was already a shaky capital intensive business in the good years. Now deeply in debt , -90% on the stock price. Ford and Caterpillar , difficult to value due to the financial pole. The subprime bubble in autos is as big as the mortgage bubble in 2006. It shows up in the balance sheets of ford and Volkswagen. We are in for shaky times. You ain't seen nothing yet. Colruyt buying back stock.
Unilever is already for years expensive, Mattel on a P/E of 30, Caterpillar continues to publish sales declines, have taken a canary look at Vodafone, also a horrible investment story. Mclathy and Gannett , US publishers , slowly dying. Bought Gannett in 2009 at 1 times free cash flow ( do not find these often :-) , no Euronav in deflation, 1 billion in debt. Buyer at 0,1 per share after the big deflation. Forfarmers : raw material input costs declined a lot, question if farmers are not going to binge on this...deflation. BP cites ample oil supply , lower for longer, Sligro ebit down 15% in 2016. Find almost zero things to buy, a lot to short.
Even after the crash of BT is the stock overvalued. Colruyt still overvalued too. Uk retailers like Morrison and Sainsbury look on the surface cheap but if you know they have to import 40% of the goods on pay in pounds you know you have a big problem...Piaggio still overvalued. Have a look at Alcoa, only making a meager $ 60 million in recurring profits in Q4 for a market cap of 6,9 billion $, big bubble here.
Halliburton ( zero free cash flow in 2016 ), Philips , Philips Lightening, John Deere have in common that their stock prices are overvalued. Waiting for the Trump dump.
Grandvision is a good LT company, but not cheap enough to buy
Schlumberger trading on 48 times its free cash flow 2016, not exactly a bargain :-)
BCP , a portuguese bank, where shareholders are once again wiped out due to the capital increase. More to come in Europe. Pearson looks fairly valued after crash, Umicore 25% too expensive. Royal mail still a bit expensive after the crash. Netflix P/E of 317 for 2016. 1929 fellow canaries.....
Other casino banks like Goldman and Citigroup also coming up with good nrs. Looks likes 1929....
The casino continues in the US if you look at the figures of Morgan Stanley. Out of the 6 billion $ in profits for 2016, there is 10 billion in trading profits. Underlying more like a 3 billion loss. The casino could go bankrupt in Trumpdepression. Bekaert was a good buy at Eur 25, not at Eur 39, more a sell. Euronext was a good buy at the IPO. If you think volumes traded on the exchanges will good in the next few years, have a look how much is still traded on the greek stock exchange.....
Even after the recent beating is Technicolor not a buy, still too expensive. TFF, worldleader in barrel, good company, just not cheap enough to buy. Econocom : insiders dumping, company had zero free cash flow in 1H2016. Euronext Brussels among the most expensive stock markets in the world. Ready for trump dump.
Take construction company Porr ag. If you look at the net profit line you see Eur 50 million in net profit, but if you see the non-recurring elements, Eur 100 million in positive, the recurring net profit is closer to -40 million. The stock was hitting a all time high recently. No wonder there was a placing in the stock. Trump will tax BMW if they get produced in Mexico, the protectionist crash is coming....
All the following stocks have one thing in common, they are not worth a lot ( if anything ) : Areva, EDF, Engie, Soitec, Solocal, Air France , Groupe Casino. HP fairly valued here. Among the sectors that have seen the highest inflation in the past 20 years is pharma , Trump is absolutely right to attack this, some pricing has gotten way out off hand like Valeant was the bigger winner in this. The biotech and pharma sector could see some heavy deflation so be aware of this if you try to value these companies, it could get nasty. Cautious on these names. Fiat : emission problems and balance sheet concerns for this company. Some companies like Recticel and Deceuninck have suffered from high oil prices and the europaen crisis in the last few years. Recticel should benefit from this as the canary thinks oil prices will collapse soon. Most of the benefit is passed through to consumers but 5 to 10% can always be gained. The stock is fairly valued at the Eur 7 level. Deceuninck is suffering from their turkish exposure as 1/3 of the revenues came from Turkey and the lira lost some 30% of its value yoy. Turkey is in the doldrums like you can see, a big credit bubble has emerged in the last few years ( and belgian banks like Dexia - Denizbank ) has helped to fuel it. So painful for Deceuninck in the short term as costs are only 50% in local currencies.... In the mid term the company could see benefit from very low oil prices. Too soon to buy but keep an eye on it if it crashes.
Want to see some deflation at work, check Supervalu, a grocery chain in the US. Walmart announcing lay offs, all is going well :-). Suedzucker and K+S are overvalued here.
The canary is not fit, but even then no basic fit shares for him.
The canary has taken a short position on the oil & gas sector. Oil will stay very low in the next decade because of the depression and 60% from the oil demand comes from transport where we will more and more go electric. Oil majors stock prices a bubble. No telecom stocks for this canary.
Two strong and good companies SEB ( strong brands like Kalor, Tefal, Rowenta ) and BIC but stock valuations look too hefty. Waiting for canary doldrums...Gadget companies Gopro and Fitbit out of product hype. That was easy to see this coming.
Deflation, mind the gap. If auto pricing normalizes some companies could be left with zero EBITDA. Take PSA for example, sells around 2 million cars a year, if they have to reduce the prices by 2.000 Euro a car , they would be left with a break even EBITDA. Volkswagen : the balance sheet is not depression/protectionism proof. So goes for Deutsche Bank if you think Germany is doing well. CGG : broken balance sheet since long.
Vicat and Imerys are very interesting companies, just a bit expensive to buy. A competitor of Sioen is Low Bonar quoted on the UK. Valuation is OK but less efficient and lower ROCE then Sioen. The french company Etam expanded too quickly in China. The financing arms of Caterpillar, Deere and CNH makes these stocks more risky then average. They more look like auto stocks with their financing arms , which in 2008 needed almost a bail out. Good move from GE to get out of finance, stock a bit expensive.
Complete free fall in the Carpetright stock. If you pass a store of them, most of the time its empty. Empty stores costs a lot as witnessed by their financial performance. Bidding war in Lavendon, regret not have been buying the shares at 130 pence, the same goes for Mcbride, leader in private label for retailers, a very tough segment but the company is realizing its turnaround. What to think of the likes of Michelin, Continental ? Due to the commodity doldrums of the last few years, margins are higher then historical norms, so i stay away from them as on normalized margins the shares look rather expensive.
Canaries mission is not writing or commission, he tries to make money looking for undervalued shares. Heavy volumes traded in Bam and Heijmans.
Happy new year stocks from the canary. His strategy is caution given the valuations of asset prices that we have. He is short on the Nasdaq 100, has a lot of cash and searches for uncommon stocks and ideas. He finds very few ideas but his profound research on Heijmans ( Eur 5,54 ) , with the stock down 90% since 2007, shows him the company can manage 3% ebit margins over time ( like most construction companies ) and this gives him an Eur 20 stock. Very few ideas but some very promising ones.
Do not seen value in Toshiba, Panasonic or Sony. Panasonic has a good battery business so keep on eye on it if it gets cheaper.Examples of relatively strong companies like Gea ( food processing company ) , Brenntag ( distribution of chemicals ) , Logwin ( small logistics company ), Draegerwerke ( body protection, a big Sioen ) but valuations too stretched.
Sacyr : too much debt, Vopak still overvalued.
Econocom : strange animal, strange valuation
Mediaset - Vivendi - TF1 : all three expensive on the Benjamin Graham method ( see frontpage for the method ) would need to go down 50% before being a potential buy. BMPS : nationalized, will not be the last bank in Europe to go through this. Sears, JCP, Crox : the P/L figures show the consumer is not in buying frenzy, he is more fearing trump depression. Weight Watchers : 2 billion $ in debt, A few german catastrophes : Euromicron, Heidelberg druck, Beate ushe, down and do not see any reason to buy. Bid on Zetes, nice multiple. Exmar : do not see the buy argument.
Do see very few bargains ( almost none ) , but the upcoming Trump depression will create a lot of them, it could take till 2018, 2019....patience is a virtue
Jc Decaux is as strong company with strong local market positions and the clear leader in outdoor marketing, stock is just too expensive. Ontex : acquisition in Brazil, stocks looks fairly valued here.
Tesco weak balance sheet, not a lot of free cash flow generation, another Eur 35 million contract win for Heijmans. French banks like BNP, Credit Agricole, etc to sue the ECB for too heavy capital requirements on deposits .This is significant because the current capital requirements will lead to a deleveraging of around 10 trillion for the banks in Europe the next few years.....cheap assets are coming....deleveraging and deflation. Gonne be a heavy 2017. Stay away from big banks.
To come back on the auto sector, PSA , Volkswagen, one needs just to go to an autodealer to see that deflation is coming up. A small citroen costs up to Eur 15.000 , my guess was it would cost Eur 10.000. D'ieteren : interesting at the Eur 30 level not at Eur 40 level. Automakers and distributors have pushed pricing through the roof, not a happy ending coming. What is remarkable this X-mas season in general in retail, is that you see a lot of discounting, can not remember seeing this so huge. Deflation is under way.
I do not see the argument to buy into Anheuser Bush Inbev or Alstom, where is the margin of safety ? On the Monsanto takeover bid, still regulatory uncertainty and knowing that Monsanto raised seed prices by 250% in the last 10 years, you do not want to know what happens in deflation, so no obvious merger arbitrage ( merger arbitrage is a way to loose a lot of money in general ). Two companies the canary regrets to not have bought where the long term case is obvious are Boeing and Airbus : LT outlook for plane demand is excellent , short term some pricing issues ( deflation ) exist for both companies. Umicore : good company but if we take 15 times earnings over the next 5 years, adjus for goodwill we get Eur 43,5, just too expensive. Heijmans : Eur 220 million contract wins ( Heijmans' share ) in 1 week, that is the way to go.
No gold stocks like Newmont or Barrick gold for this canary. First, deflation will kill the gold price, secondly low ROCE for these companies and thirdly , investing in gold is stupid like Warren Buffett once said. ( You dig it out of a big deep hole in the ground, and most gold end up there again, in a banks vault or so ). Telefonica and Telecom Italia, Altice : still suffering from big debt loads like most of the telco operators. Proximus, Telenet, Orange Belgium, not my thing. Proximus and Telenet , a bit overvalued, Orange Belgium will suffer from end of MVNO deal with Telenet
The dredging related stocks ( less and less dredging ) AVH, Boskalis and CFE look too expensive. Boskalis because of its big oil & gas exposure, CFE and AVH , just a valuation issue
A company suffering from the oil depression is Groupe Bourbon, Eur 100 million loss in 1H06 ouch. Colruyt : expensive since long, do not like expensive stocks. I do not see the argument to buy stock off Refresco, Ahold Delhaize ( in deflation ) or TKH, not cheap enough. Nyrstar CEO leaving bad news. Esprit : sales declining ( unlike Inditex ) for already a few years, no turnaround yet, Heijmans ( Eur 5,15 ) : selling Franki, stock my " precious " for 2019. Demographic outlook calls for good housing demand in the next 10 years. Using my Benjamin Graham method 11 times Eur 50 million earnings gives me a Eur 22 share, my shares will not be sold before Eur 29 a share ( probably by 2020 ), the canary way.US stocks heading for all time high, passive indexen, we will see if it works for the next 20 years.....
A bit expensive but gladly stopped with R&D activation on the balance sheet : Barco. Fugro : business likely not coming back in the next few years.
What to think about UCB after the recent drop ( Vimpact+drug price decline concerns )?. Let's get our Benjamin Graham method up and running : expected net profit next five years is Eur 950 million this on 12 times ( neutral : strong outlook but patent cliff always there mid term ) and adjusting for goodwill
gives a value of Eur 44 a share and Eur 61 for Tubize. UCB was big time overvalued and the Tubize share was more trading at fair value. The smarter guys are in the top holding. On the Omega Pharma - Perrigo soap, end of the year channel stuffing was used at Omega Pharma in the past. In Q1 the quarter after, you saw the return bookings in the account. Perrigo big time overpaid for Omega. Stock was a good short at 165$.
Valuations are such that you might just close the books and come back mid 2019 :-). If you put 2% deflation in the likes of Cofinimmo and Befimmo for the next 15 years, your stock value could drop by as much as 70%. No wonder they are all rushing to do capital increases.... Nyrstar : after the recent run up, caution is still warranted as treatment charges have seen a huge drop trough the year. Even on Bpost
one has to be careful as the company still gets Eur 150 million subsidy from the government. Contract till 2020, but minister Gatz stated that the renewal of this contract would be in doubt. The P/L of Bpost would look quite different without this Eur 150 million. Not so cheap as one might think. There are no obvious things these days.
What to think about SBM Offshore , which gave a small warning this morning. Difficult case ( like most cases these days :-)). They operate and lease book is very strong, but the company works with JV's which makes reading its accounts difficult. They sold and leased back a building recently, most of the time this is a bad sign, Telegraaf Media also doing this right now. SAP, one of the most stickiest companies in the business world. Once they are in your company, you never can get them out. It has a castle and a moat. Stock is fairly valued. Sipef, no case is easy these days, even not agro stocks. The $ strength compared to its local asian currencies have made that you did not see the underlying inflation rate ( 5% to 10% a year ) . As long as the $ stays strong, no problem ( I think it will in the medium term , in crisis, $ is safe haven ), but once it will reserve and the picture will look completely different for Sipef. F&G group - R+S Retail : sometimes the way companies report make you already skeptical. If you would go to the website of F&G group you would see already some missing financial reports. Brantano is rebranding ( does a shoe shop needs to be beautiful ? ) and suffers from the weak euro as they buy their shoes mainly in $. If you think Brexit is going to be a non-event, wait until 2017 when many retailers will have to buy with weak pounds. You ain't seen nothing yet. Postnl : seeing its M&A speculation ebbing away. Interesting to buy around Eur 3,6. Seeing local companies like Deceuninck and H.essers lowering salaries, if that is not deflation, sure does not look like hyperinflation :-)
Bpost and Postnl shareholders would be better of with a deal. Negative for both if no deal. Boskalis : fairly valued at current levels, a Hold at best. Fugro : a no touch , like most oil & gas related companies which are suffering from an industry depression.
A company with good fundamental positions in its markets is Wienerberger, good company, stock a bit expensive here. Most solar stocks like Solarworld, down 99% since there all time high, complicated issues, like Volkswagen, also complicated to value this company : P/L is strong, free cash flow close to zero and a complicated balance sheet with +- Eur 150 billion in debt + pension liabilities but these debts are mainly covered by receivables. A complicated world, that is where we are living in.....
Should you be selling equities because their voted No to Renzi ? No, you should be selling when you think your stocks are overvalued or you think the company is heading into the wrong direction. If you sell, you sell for cash at 0% in Euro in a bank with maybe a doubtfull balance sheet. Italian bonds are speculative and at 2% interest rates the risk do not outweigh the return. Recticel (Eur 5,85 ) offers value at these stock levels.
If you look at the recent profit figures from Anheuser Bush Inbev 1H16 net profit adjusted for one offs came in around Eur 2,1 billion. This for a company which until recently had a market cap of Eur 180 billion, a clear sign of overvaluation ( CEO sold stock at that time ). With the SAB Miller acquisition debt levels are reaching 4,5 times net debt/ebitda. But more to worry about is that an aging society is less of a beer drinker and that alcohol is considered more and more as bad for a canaries health. I stay away from it and more inclined to look at Danone, which has better LT prospects in my view. The big problem for investors focusing on big companies is they always overpay on acquisitions. ( SAB Miller and Whitewave could be examples ).Better performance expected from small & midcaps. Thyssenkrupp also very expensive here. Exmar and Euronav stock, not for this canary
Deal Bpost-Postnl would be a win-win situation for shareholders. Postnl holders get a good price and the merged company would have more scale, a few synergies , less price competition and a better use of Bpost strong balance sheet. Shareholders of Bpost are better off with a deal i calculate. ( Good to see that they do not overpay for Postnl ). But i fear a deal is not going to happen. To come back on commodities and the rampant speculation out of china, chinese demand for copper is still 49% of world demand, vs 8% for the US. Better not have a hard landing in China.......Heijmans : tackling their problems....huge upside potential
Huge Chinese speculation again in the commodities space like we saw in spring. Better indicator is rhodium which is a better measure and this his heading south. Shares like Rio and Glencore look expensive here after the rally. Nyrstar hadn't seen his rally. Engie, EDF , Areva : weak balance sheets and/or old reactors have destroyed shareholders. Painful and not a buying opportunity.
Italian stock market battered. Many stocks down 90% in the last few years. Down 90% could we find value in it ? If we leave out banks and insurance companies as speculative, i do not see value in the likes of Geox, Mediaset or Telecom Italia. I find little in Italy and the fear of the ugly repeat of the 1930's is still on here.
Marketing for a Santander branche in Antwerp : " Financial security with a loan from Santander ". Even in deep crisis, some banks never learn apparently......Bpost : current stock levels ( Eur 21 ) present an entry point for dividend investors, i have a fair value of Eur 23,75. Casino Guichard : such a big group, such a low profitability. I stay way from it.
In general, the canary stays away from bank and insurance stocks, or admit they are speculative. ( Worst investment is you think thinks that are safe and prove to be speculative like Fortis ). Arcelormittal : if we are going to print 6 billion $ in Ebitda the next few years, taking into account CO'2 emission and pension cost and deficit, i only arrive at Eur 1,5 per share. Some stocks are preparing for their " 1937 moment ". Heijmans : Cfo and Ceo now gone. A bit too much errors. I have/had a good impression of Ton Hillen. They need to be more strict on financial/risk. They can always call canary help.
Looking and screening but not finding a lot to invest in Europe. If you leave out in Europe 1) companies with weak balance sheets 2) Not having a favourable outlook 3) Insurance and bank stock, speculative by nature 4) businesses you do not understand 5) not trading on 30 times 10 year average P/E 6) available cheap enough to buy, so with margin of safety ........i am not finding a lot...almost nothing actually. One that i regret a lot is the portugese company Corticeira Amorim, world leader in cork. I screened it when the stock was Eur 2....... I will tell you, investing is a mind game...can drive you nuts :-)... if you weren't already cranky
What to think about auto stocks ? Peak demand, a lot of subprime loans and car prices that on average are 10 to 15% higher then the previous peak of 2007. We can expect deflation in 2017 and 2018. Many have a big financial arm ( PSA not ). So difficult, PSA looks OK but deflation could rip the sector seriously.
Carrefour : stock correctly valued at Eur 22 current levels. They do not sell canaries however. Heijmans stock getting knocked. Normalized earnings ( with 3,5% ebit margins ) gives 40 million in profit. They made these margins in the 1990's till 2007 so not irrational. Now trading at a normalized P/E of 2,5.
Buy in times of depression , sell out in good times was a Benjamin Graham advice. Risk/ reward is interesting as it could trade 10 times P/E or *4 on the current stock price in less depression times. If you find P/E of 3 , please send the canary the idea at :-). You will get a feather.
A point on Compagnies des Alpes and Pierre et Vacances. Compagnie des Alpes runs ski resorts and theme parks. Low return on capital and they do not own the surface but sort of operator and they pay for 30 years for an area in which they need to bid money once the term expires. It has also underinvested for years and the ski tariffs are starting to get high. Pierre et Vacances runs holiday resorts. The problem they had is that they sell their real estate and rent it back. Hit enormous by inflation and is now turning back to real estate development which is a speculative undertaking. The canary stays away from both of the stories.
A point on Fagron : fair value : Eur 3 ( stock 9 )
Bekaert : you can run but you can not hide from the global recession.
2017 will be deflation for auto suppliers. My fair value is Eur 28
Ageas : always good quality, but low interest rates a big risk. The CEO said once that banks can die of a sudden crisis but an insurance company can die from leukemia. Kbc : very strong like always, but zero loan loss provisions meaning peak earnings ? Ahold Delhaize, stock way too expensive, same goes for WDP and Biocartis.Bpost : guidence for 2020 ok, dividend investors can start to take a look. Nyrstar : $ strength very positive, I value it at Eur 9 per share, 50% upside.
Airline stocks. Interesting for those who consider that oil is heading for a long term low price ( 25$ ). Would consider Air France and Lufthansa more like " a call on the equity " like benjamin graham would say due to the very weak balances sheets. The fuel bill for Air France is 4,6 billion Euro at oil 45$, if oil would go down 30% from here and air tickets would cost the same as now, the Air France stock would be trading at a P/E of......1. Very interesting as a " call on the equity ". Bpost : should not overpay Postnl, you still have that tail risk of the pension fund of Postnl. Unicredito with its capital increase, shareholders already wiped out like BMPS. Like Graham said : bank stock only for the specialist investor. Hugo Boss : expensive stock, price deflation and quality not what is used to be.
Accell seeing deflation in q3. Pricing of e-bikes is a concern longer term ( like pricing of the I-phones ). Stock not undervalued. Always taught D'ieteren would acquire Accell. Instead they bought the famous Moleskine. Is this booklet the future....or the past. The canary has its doubt about this acquisition.
Exxonmobil, Eni, Total, Royal Dutch, stay for away from oil companies. Free cash flow is nihil and stock prices a bubble. Once the oil price dips again, expect some major crashes in these names. Bubbles do not last forever.
Postnl rejects bid. I have a canary fair value of Eur 3,8. Defensives under pressure. If Danone would hit Eur 55 , I would buy it there.
Bpost showing signs of weakness. Further volume declines can not be compensated wih cost cuts. Will hit the bottom line and with still Eur 150 million of halve stated aid, i stay away from it. I understand the bid on Postnl and the nervousness of the CEO....
Engie, like a lot of old utilities struggling with old reactors ( decommissioning ) , i stay away from them. Agfa difficult story, GM firing 2000 workers as car inventories hit multi year high ( like beginning 2008 ). Trump faces a difficult battle in economic winter times. Arcadis already for years that cash flows do not match P/L, a warning sign for a company that has done a lot of acquisitions.
Trumped. Hertz with huge
debt , not worth a lot. Ontex,
Euronext, fairly valued
Looking into the figures of
Solvay and Arcelormittal, more
then fully valued. Canary does not
see a lot of things he likes. Sapec yes. To come back at Heijmans, a
lot of misery since 2007 weak
balance sheet...but if they would hit
their LT targets and even assuming
a capital raise of Eur 60 million ,
the stock would be trading at a P/E
of 3. The stock could *3 if they
The canary starts to sing and buy
Postnl : one that the canary always
liked. M&A premium now in the
Heijmans : hitting an all time low,
canary did a roadshow with them a few years ago. Like 99% of the
construction companies, weak
balance sheet, but with the stock
hitting all time lows the canary will
look at it.
Can ABI go broke in TD ? Anheuser Bush Inbev is idd a bankruptcy candidate. Look at the balance sheet with huge debt and the current asset position minus current liabilities. It is a doomed situation in TD. I have worked for a bank where thinks were cool , human and good untill ABI related investors took control, greed took over. The math of A plus B divided by cost cutting ( merely personnel expenses ) looks ok at first hand. Problem is two sided : 1) those cost cutted away reduce expenses ( like on your expensive, lower quality beer 2) in a bank, people are not like sheep , you can expect some resistance or people switching to competitors......Will be dancing on your graveyard ABI......Colruyt fine. I will tell you a little interesting secret. Looking for companies to invest......well check vacancies sites. If they hire, most of the time good. Colruyt was one, Wolters Kluwer , company with a moat, is also one.
Few stocks are cheap......do not see many.....drops are warranted. Solvay getting closer but not yet bargain. Basf too. Carpetright showing demand is still waning.
BASF warned, some stocks are getting cheap. We will report on them in the next few days. Small Keyware might be one of them despite defaults by small shops. Strog free cash flow more then 15 percent free cash flow yield.
Just as example Esprit, Savencia will cut jobs at the head office. TD in full force. Crashes now everywhere. GE can go broke. Slumberger getting pummeled.
CGG, Bourbon, Vallourec still in a dire situation.
BMW warning, zero free cash flow ytd, Bpost warns. US post looses billions a year. HP still strong.
Solvay trading at 15 times corrected free cash flow, ok value at Eur 96. Savencia at Eur 63 also worth a closer look, as Imerys. Manitou, i have recurring free cash flow of Eur 50 million , putting it on 15 times gives Eur 750 million, good company , still a bit expensive.
Renault was idd too strongly valued at 20 times free cash flow.
The demograhic cliff, you can feel it every day. Nyrstar wrangled by trafigura. Bad. Pierre and Vacances in complete crash modus, zero free cash flow and balance sheet soso. Index investing is the same as speculation, only do it when you have analyzed the underluying members. Vopak at Eur 35 would be a small buy. Greenyard, almost Eur 100 million cash drain in 1H. Balance sheet still wrecked even after disposal.
We face deflation, misery as far as the eye can see. Esprit with horror Q3 sales. Bourbon also still in TD.
Valloureq in TD, Nyrstar might get a lifeline. Nvidia, since ling too expensive, trashed. Auto sales minus 7 in october, peak sales for PSA VW
K+S further warning. Bekaert , if you look in the underluyig cash flows actually expensive enough at 22 euro. Like EVS. SBM has strong free cash flows....
OIl headed down in TD. Schlumberger, Technip and the expensive oil companies like Exxon getting hit. Farmers stocking products......not good. And so we get our 1937-1938 crash. Orpea too expensive. Xingda, ( competitor of Bekaert, not cheap, one offs in the figures. Ageas, fair valued at EUr 43, low interest rates a LT risk.....
GE has idd a wrecked balance sheet, since 1990 ies, SAP expensive acquisition, Pon showing renewed interest in Accell. FANG hammered again. Apple is just pricing. Can make 20 to 30 billion losses in TD. Heidelberg druck still big cash drain
Thyssen blows the warning pipe again. Bombardier still burned 850 million $ ytd, since long struggling with its balance sheet and heft investment program in its plane offerings, tough call. Sodexho is a company with a castle and a moat.Siemens , i have free cash flow for the year ( after minorities ) of 4,3 billion , meaning it trades at 20 times free cash flow. Fairly valued at 102 a share. Swatch and Richemont will suffer from big deflation. You can get a watch from china delivered to your door at 2 Euro......!!!! Sell SES.
Same picture at Bpost and Deutsche Post, mail decline not offset by parcels, the math does not work.Dead canaries. Companies like Barco, GM, Toshiba cutting further jobs. TD. AHold Delhaize showing the group has strengths. Never liked X-fab. Auto companies feeling the heat. Conti figures also showing weakness, like Sif holding. Solvay is a company where the cash flow is weaker then the P/L, look at the reversal of provisions. Cash flows tell a better story then P/L at companies.
Postnl : mail decline not offsetting parcels pick up. Cash flow from operating activities minus capex at -75 million. Vopak ok. Kraft Heinz Foods seeing deflation. Exxon, only 10 billion free cash ytd, chevron much better. Can Starbucks maintain its pricing ?
Arcelormittal Q3 with ebitda of 2,7 billion $ is actually weak given current high steel prices. Brunel fairly valued, Van Lanschot : very low loan loss provisions look unsustainable. Serious insider buying in ABI. Corbion fairly valued. Apple is just pricing. Normal pricing could mean it makes losses of 20 billion a year. A good deflation short together with Amaponzi.
Fiat Chrysler and Recticel have to admitt they start to see TD. Samsung too. FB, people turning away from it. Baidu. Operating performance deteriorating. Always calculate the free cash flow and P/L over the last 10 years and then estimate the future, knowing that peak demand in the US was 2008 and Europe 2012, so from there on the trend is deflationary....Not easy. Recticel corrected 12 million euro net profit and Eur 10 in free cash flow, which means the stock at 10 was trading 55 times free cash flow over the last 10 years, now still 38 times. GE in full TD, still cash burning in the industrial part. Telenet and Proximus are currently performing well, see Telenet even 500 million free cash flow. But with pricing 30 percent higher then our neighbour countries.....everything depends on the 4 th entrant. And capex at Telenet is running way below depreciation ( like last time they checked my internet connection, needed to pay Eur 100, and it was due to roadworks that the thing did not work, pfff ). TF1, Q3, zero free cash flow ytd if you leave out the acqusitions.
Fangbusted, huge crash of Amaponzi.
Of course, Beiersdorf, L'oreal, are excellent companies, but will they be able to keep pricing up ? D'ieteren is fairly valued at Eur 35 if you put zero value on Moleskine. ( Some stores i visited stated removing them from the stores, no surprise ). Euronav with 100 million $ losses 9M2018. Trumpdepression. Spie and Tarkett getting hammered; Spie, like already stated, looks an imtech 2. Volkswagen with its typical stuff, but continues to leverage the balance sheet now equity 100 on 443 balance sheet total. Nyrstar, idd buys back its bonds.
There are banks out there that have no problem at buying a stock in IPO at Eur 70 and say sell at Eur 1. It happens to Nyrstar. Never profitable, wrong bets, high debt, port pirie redevolpment and china collapsing ( Zinc is more then 50 percent china demand ). And on top rising energy costs due to politicians making no decision about the future. And i know Umicore does not believe in the port pirie redevelopment.There is however one good point about Nyrstar is that most of its debt is in bonds....so the market to market of these bonds is crashing reducing the actual debt load. If some bank would give them a cheap loan , they could buy back their bonds....and reduce debt. Or even do not buy back that 2024 bond, because it reflects market value. I would not sell the stock at Eur 1, might even be worth a very small speculative bet given the debt structure. Imagine the impact if one of our leading industrials collapses ( jobs, sentiment ). Sioen should have a look at Low Bonar, bad track record and very weak free cash generation but trading below net current asset value. Sell SES and Eutelsat here.
This is a crash in Europe on what i call " Bokrijk " companies, actually non performing like Pierre et Vacances with zero free cash flow and development risk. In the destroyed south i do not see a lot. CIR, holding of de benedetti not cheap, Mediaset neither. Disaster. Will DB be the next Lehman in deflationary trumpdepression, might well be. Think of your cash at the bank......
Youth in Antwerp asks for lower priced pizzas, will they go to Kinepolis which has hiked prices the last 20 years ? Amazon cash flows have more in common with Sears then an 850 billion company. Like after the 1937 rally, we might be looking at a lost deflationary decade.....We are stuck with old companies like Agfa and Signify....Zombified like Japan.
Amazon dropped its bomb. Exmar still uninvestable. Fakebook and Alphabet showing " Silicon peak " . Signify with almost zero free cash flow.....Continental ( Eur 133 ) looks cheap after the crash , 12.5 times
corrected earnings. BASF after the recent crash also getting cheap at 12 times free cash flow. The crash is creating bargains slowly. BASF, Conti, Bekaert. randstad, i have a normalized free cash flow of Eur 350 million over the cycle, put this on 15 times which means the stock is not cheap enough to buy.
And so the deflation bear growls. Besi warns, ABI with its deflation misery ( still not cheap enough to by at Eur 67 ). FANG getting slaughtered. Fakebook and Amaponzi. Heidelbergcement still expensive.
Where can we put some buy orders in ? Bekaert, although that the cash flows since 2012 are not so strong, calculate only 60 million on average. This is idd TD.
Trumpdepression and deflation are tough for investing. AT&T getting clobbered. Problem with lot of auto companies is their financing arms, otherwise these stocks would be trading 15 times earnings not 7 times, free cash flows are not that strong. EVS, suffering from trumpdepression, but good track record.....Eur 18, hmmm. Salzgitter also had its 1930's rally, but on a recurring basis not generating free cash flow....
Harley : you think 65 years olds still drive harleys ? Talk to moto drivers, they will say : too expensive ( deflation ) and luckily you get a repair kit with it.
Deutsche bank with another warning, Arcadis still with brazilian worries. Arcadis has always been a company where the cash flows are weaker then the P/L. So look at the cash flows. Only a meager Eur 17 million so far ytd. Texas and Melexis with peak profits, deflation. Bic seems to come back a bit. Stock fairly valued at 88, 15 times P/E 2018. Caterpillar with good figures, but cyclical of course. Ford claims the US has now the highest steel prices in the world. Exxon, Chevron, huge 9 million barril build up in the US stocks, signs of depression building strength.
Schlumberger and Haliburton getting trashed, SLB was still on 30 times free cash flow. Warnings all over the place : Atos warning, Randstad getting impacted from trumpdepression, Hasbro warns, Daimler also getting hit full throttle.
22/10 : Fiat, tough case. Current free cash flows of the group are very strong, not seen in 10 years for the group, Eur 2.4 billion in 1H18 in the industrial part, very strong. Sell of division at more then 6 billion Euro is a good price. Will have a further look at it.....Arcadis on 17 times free cash flow. Philips getting clobbered, was on 30 times free cash flow. Xior and Aedifica way too expensive.
20/10 : How to value US steel and Arcelormittal, using current steel prices ( helped by import taxes or no) or the LT averages ? Current prices at in the US for steel are 100% higher then the LT average , in Europe they are 30 percent higher then average. If you would take LT average prices and calculate then US steel and Arcelormittal could make billions of losses a year. LT is 450, US stands at 950 so in flat rolled US steel does 10 million in shipments and Arcelormittal US 18. 500 $ collapse would mean 5 billion loss for US steel and 9 billion loss for Arcelormittal , rendering their stocks worthless.......
19/10 : Michelin and Bouygues warned, saw this coming. Wessanen was idd hype, hype over since warning. Remy ok , but also overvalued in deflation. Bekaert at Eur 19 is a buy. You can buy lot of cheap stuff through Amazon and Ebay, who will ever shop again at a store.....trumpdepression.
Look in deflation investing is tough and the math is strange. Can a huge revenue drop ( pricing ) be corrected by lay offs ? etc. Tough. Been looking in the south of Europe, place is distroyed , most stocks down 85 percent or so since 2007 and difficult to find something
On Ebay you can find small stuff at 1 dollar that they still try to sell at 10 dollar in the local shop , game over. Umicore and Philips still overly expensive. IBM a dead canary ( only 200 servers in Belgium ) . SAP too expensive still.
Carrefour correctly priced at Eur 16. Biomerieux still expensive.
ASML with UEV pick up, Beter bed in trumpdepression, Barco suffering too. Heijmans : was expensive at 12, promesis vs realized figures the last few years. Tomtom , was expensive too.
Danone : ok value at Eur 62.5, like Kellogg a good LT holding. Car sales in Europe tumbling. There is a lease bubble, deflation. That leasing companies want to list is a canary in the coalmine.
Sears bankrupt, Verizon and ford cutting jobs.
Pierre and Vacances with the same old problems
GE still burning 1,6 billion in 1H, new ceo.
Royal mail confirms mail is in decline, costs are fixed like Bpost and Postnl. Tradiotional mail decline does not compensate pick up in packages
Tesla crash, chips in deflation, Connect delisting, was cheap idd at 0,8 per share.
Thyssen considers split up. Pension cost weigh. K+S warned.
Danske bank and Banco Santander show banks have not learned their lesson. If there is no nr 4 player in belgium, then Proximus is ok value. Forfarmers : ok value at Eur 9.3. I value it at Eur 10
Italy under pressure. Most italian bank stocks-90 percent since 2007. Tesla got competition, Zalando warns. Zalando and Amazon since long overvalued.
Game companies like Activision Blizzard and Ubisoft going strong, in trumpdepression it is a good passtime. Hermes and LVMH going strong but i have my doubts goign forward...chinese dumping of fake ?
Alibaba dual structure costing, US farmers suffering from tariffs. Most companies think they will be able to raise prices, they are wrong. Consumer is already tapped out
Teslaburner, Deutsche bank pressured. SES at Eur 20 my friends.
Haliburton got wacked, Econocom still cash draining.
Accell, ebikes out of china , deflation. Telecom sector got wacked.
Casino cheap ? Carrefour rumoured. Bid on Ontex. Problem with H&M ,etc is the following : nightdress out of china Eur 3 a piece, H&M Eur 29, Vandevelde Eur 50. Dead in deflation
Who still drinks Campbell soup ? CFE weak figures, Sioen also peaked. Low bonar and Sioen suffering from high oil prices and will they be abble to pass them trough ? Draegerwerke 1H2018 figures and cash flow were very weak. 0perating cash drain of Eur 66 million in 1H2018.
FAANG all time high, it is like the 1937 rally, will never reach these levels again.
EVS suffering from trumpdepression, IBA weakish.
Tiffany still going strong, Schlumberger too expensive.
Gap and Footlocker , warnings and no moat, warnings from Balta and Greenyard.
Target still strong, Costco very expensive, Bam still with big cash drain1h08. Continental with a warning, Michelin margins also under pressure. Margins were above normalized levels.
Agfa garbish, Tessenderlo weak
Nvidia still going strong, expensive
Sears and JC Penney suffering. Gone broke
Boskalis still in overcapacity, Sipef suffering from low palm oil price.
12/08 : trump against Harley. Harlys are too expensive
Disney with weakish figures, K+S still suffering from oversupply,Booking suffering from trumpdepression.
09/08: Thyssen warns, Tesla plans are bullshit,
08/08: Ahold Delhaize seeing deflation in the US
Warning zalando, too expensive, Beiersdorf good company LT. Palm oil producers in trump depression
Sligro with weak figures, company pricing is a bit expensive in its product offering, deflation.
Apple not worth a lot in big deflation,
tesla huge cashburner, basic fit too expensive.
Thyssen warned, Arcelormittal with good figures, DSM too
Accor, Casino : weak AH figures, Orange, nestle ok , orange indebted, Ford warn, BMW, weak cash flow figures, ABi ok but EM crashing, Ontex, UCB ; ok figures. FB crash after weak audience nrs. Total ok.
At&T weak, Harley weak, DB and Santander with bwa figures, black box, Deere and CAT ok , potential bid on Ageas
Randstad and Peugeot ok figures
GE with more bad news, Bekaert at Eur 22 ok buy here. Microsoft ok figures.
With big deflation figures to be expected indebted telcos like Telefonica, Iliad, Altice, are doomed. Most stocks are overvalued.
Sap, Barco ok figures, Esprit with 2.5 billion HKD in losses
JNJ with ok figures,
Greenyard, contaminated food, i value it at Eur 8.5. Suedzucker with poor figures. Ontex bid, Netflix with a huge cash burn
Bam, Volker under pressure. Bam still in cash drain. Semis under pressure, in deflation modus. Besi , too much Iphone.
Trade war. Stocks in sell off mode. Deflation. Financials under pressure. Harley will see margin pressure. Companies suffering from Trumpdepression. Amazon pushing in pharma. Deflation till 2023
Look just in telecom what happens with Iliad. In Italy it will offer mobile at 6 Euro , recent prices of competitors where 12 Euro. In Belgium , they still are around 18 Euro. There you have your 50 percent deflation or more.......Indeed Proximus, Telenet , Orange could go bankrupt.Like most indebted telco like Telefonica, etc......With 50 percent deflation, a stock like Microsoft, Apple......could be worthless
Italian mess like expected. Italian banks bougth more italian debt, real Pigs banks. Italian market dangerous,.Davide Campari is a good company. Mediaset still too expensive. Sell of in emerging stocks. Groupe Casino,Carrefour getting hit on Brazil. Air France draining cash. Esprit trading at net cash. Basf rather cheap. Deutsche Bank next Lehman ? Indebted telcos like Iliad, Telefonica crashed. Iliad offers free at 6 euro in italy , deflation. if this is the new tariff plan , then telcos can go much lower. Anheuser Bush Inbev sqeezed between the lack of premium brands and deep discounts. Deutsche post : mail decline will not be copansted, sell. Bruegel.org. Ramsey and Oliver closing restaurants. Campbell hurt by private label. Gimv big bonuses.
Record art price, slow motion economic collapse. 3600 rent for a bedroom in NY. America : 3 de wereld land. Halfords warns, Marks and spencer ok. Poule et Poulette not workin
Mediaset, still weak figures, Proximus : I have fair value of Eur 22.5, Draegerwerke in big correction modus, still not cheap. Air France : suffering from strikes and limited free cash flow. Orange with big debt. Telefonica does not cover debt in DCF too.Iliad in free crash, Casino and Carrefour with their LT problems. Geox :still flying low
RTL weak, Vivendi too expensive at Eur 22.3, CGG, big losses, Richemont with unsold watches. Jamie Oliver and Gordon Ramsey closing restaurants due to losses. Salesforce : too expensive.
EVS warns, stock has big downside potential , maybe Eur 10 million in profits, Jensen bad, Nrs of KBC bandits ok.
Eutelsat warned, deflation, Elior warned, Jensen warned. Fountain worthless.
Gamestop ceo gone, Vastned Retail warns 1/3 of retail space could be gone, inner cities important.ABI : volume decline in the US. Postnl, Bpost, Deutsche Post : business model does not work, declining volumes not compensated. Could be lossmaking in a few years. Deutsche Post looks terrible. Retail seeing price declines. Delhaize also discounting.
Companies cutting jobs like Solvay, solvay even Eur 150 million, Still preparing for deep winter modus. I have a fair value of Eur 16.6 on Bpost, slightly undervalued at current levels. ( Eur 15.5 ). BNP, Soc gen : revenues getting hit, trumpdepression.
03/05 : warnings from balta, bpost, greenyard. Nyrstar debt climbing.Solvay 100 million free cash flow down from 160 million in Q1 2017. Tesla bad. Infineon ok Hermes still going strong. Estee Lauder too expensive. Hugo boss Q1 , cash flows very weak. H&M : big insider buying
Amg, Tkh : ok but stocks more then fairly priced. Vivendi looking to IPO Universal music.
23/04 : Airbus weak Q1. Beter Bed weak Q1, Mattel too, US Steel weak, Euronav too, Air france and Renault weak too.
GE is burning 1,7 billion in Q1, Philips Q1 free cash flows are weak. Haliburton with around zero free cash flow. Sap raises outlook, 600 million free cash in Q1. Akzo and Randstad a bit weak. Akzo was on 30 times free cash flow, Randstad still cyclical. Amazon fair value zero in big deflation. Google good figures but deflation pending.
Pier 1 import warned. No free cash flow. Philip Morris, P&G, Kraft having pricing power problems. Instead of rising prices the soon will have to lower them. Semis under pressure like ASML, Nvidia, etc of fear of Iphone and smartphone. The problem the canary sees is pricing. For the moment operators still subsidize Apple, will they continue to do this.
Q1 Figures of Unilever bit weak, Arcadis too, Debenham warned, stock on P/E of 5, too cheap. Biomerieux ok Q1, stock expensive.
Draegerwerke warned, was a bit expensive. Now on 16 times normalized free cash flow. Tomtom still expensive. Sipef ( Eur 60 ) : at current low cpi prices, stock 20% overvalued. ASML, Heineken : figures ok, stocks expensive. Vopak Q1 ok. Those who bougth at Eur 35, nice profit. Jupiter ( asset management ) sees Q1 outflows of 1,9 billion $. Danone : nice organic growth of 4,9 percent in Q1. Car sales in Europe, momentum over. We can expect deflation to hit.
Amazon : trump pushing to review deal with Us post, could cost Amazon 1 to 1.5 billion a year, Tesla burning, Netflix huge burn. Goldman and JP figures were ok.
An in dept look into Sonae. This portugese retail company is trading on 24 times free cash flow when adjusting for one off gains. ECB looking into the derivatifs of Deutsche Bank. LVMH on more then 30 times free cash flow 2017, L'oreal 25 times. Remy Cointreau still expensive. Deutsche telecom and Mr Brico with weak free cash flows for 2017. Marijona stocks, big growth expected but most stocks are trading on the OTC, a lightly regulated stock market segment. Question on pricing of marijoana and what is the moat, it is easy to grow.
Carrefour with its deflation warning, bid on Firstgroup. DSM raises outlook as Fagron. John Deere and CNH will get impacted by the US trade war on agriculture with China.Bed bath and Beyond with warning but stock too cheap at 8.5 times earnings. Tupperware warned too, on 15 times free cash flow. Gea group warns, good company, on 25 times free cash flow.
09/04 : Schlumberger on 45 times free cash flow. Sodexo on 30 times earnings
Deflation spreading in teh asset managemetn sector Allianz, Pimco under pressure to lower fees. Deflation started in oil and retail and is spreading. We can aslo fear price pressure from UK insurers on european insurers. Harley too expensive and crap quality,according to biker fans.
Walmart on 17 times P/E, Supervalu , no free cash flow, shareholder pressure, AT T Q4 under pressure, on 20 times P/E corrected for 2017. Acomo on 15 times P/E, no debt, company is impoprting nutts, specreites for the likes of Unielver. Supervalu looking for a bid. Coc
Trade wars great again. Impact on CNH, John Deere, Archer Daniels.
Sodexho was expensive. Eutelsat cheap on 11 times free cash flow.
Teslaburner, Amabubbel, Fakebook, Italydefault, Santandercrap, Deutsche, i have 46 trillion in derivatofs, Banksters, our ponzi scheme social security all in the dumpster soon :-). Belgium 2,77 miljoen werklozen. Greek company PPC, you do not cover the net debt in your DCF.
Gamestop : FY figures , 300 million dollar free cash flow this on 8 times gives 2,4 billion, is worth 2 billion at least. D'ieteren : Moleskine going away in the shops in Belgium, Orpea : FY figures, just too expensive , has used its balance sheet, Neopost , balance sheet soso, Vallourec still indebted, CTT : mail decline not offset by parcels,
Heidelbergcement , 25 times free cash flow, still expensive. Esprit close to net cash value. Orpea ok figures
Suedzucker, warning of overcapacity and low sugar prices. The beets were staying in the field, no need for them; stock was still very expensive. Arcadis still not cheap after share collapse, Hennes and Mauritz with their warning, huge inventory, deflation. Neopost, balance sheet soso. Gamestop cheap
Gamestop looks cheap, Hengdeli too, Lonmin and Arcelormittal South Africa, down more then 95 percent since the 2008 all time high. Arcelormittal south africa still a huge cash burner, Lonmin , the guys who shot at their workers, still slight cash burn. Eutelsat cheap, debenhams too, Naturex gets a bid
Salesforce done a big acquisition, this company juggles with GAAP NON GAAP earnings, warning
Deutsche Telecom around zero free cash flow in 2017, balance sheet not really nice. An old dino , like so many german companies. Can I ask the UK people to continue shopping at Debenhams , thank you lol. Stock in full TD.
On Mattel, down with the retail channel and low demand too come, demographics. Stock near all time low, is it cheap. Problem is that Ken has accumulated debt. The big question is will Barbie leave Ken in Trumpdepression. IBA with a cash drain of only Eur 60 million. Make Wallonia great again. Reading into the 10Q GE, cash flows are bad. Will it be General with Electric or without Electric in TD. Neopost, near all time low. Neo with Post or without the post. Stallergenes not ok. Deutsche Bank with a new warning, even not on derivatives. The 46 trillion in derivatofs are no chocotofs lol
Arcelormittal , trumpeffect on steel, but do we take trumpearnings or normalized, that is the big question. Eutelsat getting cheap but with debt. Atenor , mind your debt load
Bic down to OK valuation levels, 15 times earnings over the last 10 years. Hennes and Mauritz on 23 times free cash flow , even after the great crash stock not cheap. GE down like a burning plane. Vivendi sells most of its stake in the expensive Ubisoft story. In the Boskalis story, share buyback and insider buying, stock fairly valued at 16 times normalized earnings. Carpetright with loan and cap increase. Current shareholders dead canaries. Balta was that not something for you at 40 million pounds......Vallourec with still hefty losses and balance sheet soso
Fakebook is fakebook he, the place where all is great, we will see in Trumpdepression how the behaviour will change. Petrobras actually deleveraging, nice free cash flows, balance sheet remains an issue. Lukoil also doing well, Gazprom ( mr Putin he ) , huge capex so not a lot of free cash generation here. Atenor, mind your balance sheet. Carpetright and Debenhams getting full TD ( Trumpdepressioned )
Bourbon is fighting for survival with its debt load, convenant breach. Reading their report they were even thinking in making their accounts on a non continious basis. Seadrill was already drilled in the ground.Virbac screens too expensive, Haulotte too. Bpost , its US acquisition is seeing the D word, deflation. Combined with the heavy decline in mail and the uncertain renewel of their 150 million distribution allowance from the government makes it a still difficult case. I would value it at not more then 12 times earnings, so 3,6 billion Eur.Adobe and Ulta , good figures indeed. Catana , ultra expensive, with cap increase. Goldman putting Nyrstar in buy, you know goldman, always a reason lol
NRG also overly expensive on 25 times free cash flow. To come back on Air France KLM, if you take the payback of leasing and rent of the planes into account, the company is burning money in the amount of 400 million. Banco Santander , making publicity with " financial security with a loan from Santander ". Nothing new lol. Altice with its debt.
Linde-Praxair : keep an eye on the new group that is being created ( not done yet , still hurdles ), will be strong and geographically well spread. Trading on 20 times free cash flow after synergies, not cheap but it is definitely worth this multiple.
Clear example of Europe going bananarepublic : Last day of Bekaert in the star index Bel20,being replaced by a biotech company Ablynx that is taken over by the french. If there is one company that is a reference in Belgium it is Bekaert. Nope, Europe is not what is used to be. Are we sinking in a rat hole, Trump would say ?
Closer look at Pierre & Vacances, for those who ski, well known ( Compagnies des Alpes has underinvested since the crisis, Eur 15 million of free cash in 2017 ) it ran into trouble as the company sold and rented back its real estate. Inflation has put rents up but the crisis has affected occupancy, with the well known effect on margins. margins almost gone. They do real estate development but this is a risky activity with sometimes big losses ( like now ). Since the crisis 2008, not much free cash flow has been created. Stock has been dead money.
Mediaset : still in crisis mode seeing the P/L, Bourbon( oil related service supplier ) with a staggering loss ( incl writedowns ) of around 600 million, Lufthansa with decent figures. If you analyse Lufthansa, Air france never forget to take the leasing and leasing costs into account. Boeing : what will be the price tag of B747 after the big deflation ? Spanish companies Duro and Doleo have also seen better days. After the biggest crash on record for a BEL20 company, Bpost back to ok valuation levels.
Picanol published good figures ( i looked at it when it was trading 80 percent below current levels, was a big mistake not to buy when Tack took control ) . Tessenderlo also decent figures, although they benefit from some unsustainable positive market developements.
Bastide going well, elderly products he,stock expensive. Transgene, we have been waiting for 10 years here, will they finally deliver ( did once a roadshow with the CEO Archinard ). Mr Brico back to black figures. Insider buying in Boskalis ( Have normalized profit level of 200 million, a good and bad year combined ) on 15 times P/E gives us Eur 3 billion, trading at 3,3 billion. If we have to buy with margin of safety then we buy at a valuation of 2 billion Euro. Need more Trumpdepression for that.:-). Umicore too expensive on more then 50 times P/E over the last 10 years
Volkerwessels delevering margins, when will BAM,Heijmans deliver some money for shareholders. Sif ok in this crisis. FNG : they know something about financial structuring,company burning money. Econocom : accounting errors here pls correct.
Tesla nada, Amazon nada, Netflix : not a bubble i think, real. Accell : look at what a company has generated in P/L and free cash flow in the last few years. At Accell you see a big difference : P/L was strong, free cash was negative due to working capital issues. If you see this for a few years,be skeptical. Sales get recognized when products are shipped, does not need to be a final costumer sometimes.Your canary has some experience with this : He started to work for a company where the P/L looked fantastic, but the free cash flows horrible. It ended in receivership.
Delisting of microcap Snowworld at 10% free cash flow yield, getting cheap of the stock market. Bpost figures, decline in mail eating into the 2018 figures. Calculate 300 million free cash flow 2018, on more then 18 times free cash flow. Strongly overvalued. Adidas raising LT outlook, Inditex : results still resilient but stock was expensive.
FY figures. Basically failliet, eh basic fit. You have to believe in the growth nrs otherwise way to expensive. Forfarmers ok, good cash generation. But Brexit posing challenges. ( For all of us ).RWE with 4 billion cash drain. Bad.E.on also messy. Veolia : weak balance sheet like many old utilities.Iliad too expensive. Econocom : can someone pls call they company, there are big errors in their reporting. KBC : credit bubble in belgium. Volkswagen : cash flow from operating activities for the group negative by around 1,1 billion Euro, we have never seen that doing them before. Cash flow from investing activities - 16.5 billion. In debt and leasing we trust.
Spring is in the air and we have a new couple E.ON, RWE, actually crossing assets and stakes, mainly concerning Innogy. Two difficult assets Rwe andE.on, Rwe had almost a cash burn of Eur 4 billion in 9M. Oeps. Difficult to value these two but highly capital intensive and weakened balance sheets. Salzgitter, cash flows much weaker then P/L , lot off one offs and like many german companies ( pension charges not in the P/L).FNG bond placing, company is draining cash
Exxon : around 30 billion $ capex in 2019, operating cash flow 2017 of 30 billion $. The plan is not without risk in trump/demography misery. More importantly, might it not be wiser to spend this 30 billion a year $ in solar and related infrastructure ? There are not many companies or even governments that can spend so much money, GE not he :-). Cleaner and less pollution. You are one of the biggest reference companies in the US and you invest so little in the real future. We are increasingly dying from CO2.The sun gives us enough energy on 1 day for the whole year. Wise strategy Exxon to spend the money like this ? Bed Bath & Beyond is looking cheap here. Jardine Strategic and Jardine Matheson look too expensive on 30 times underlying earnings.
Kroger : deflation at work in Q4, operating profit drop from 888 million to 44 million $ ( some excep items in it). It will spread to other sectors this nasty deflation. Go on Sunday to the church and prey that all the canaries will survive. Costco ok. Fairmount Santrol : FY figures, through the cycle 2016 - 2017 not creating value. Debenhams : stock getting slaughtered on UK retail doldrums, Sports Direct near 30% takeover barrier. Stock is a bargain at 27 pence. ( deflation and LT leases the biggest problem ). Toys R US maybe shutting all the stores in the US ( Buffett making allegations that Trump needs to be like on Roosevelt in 1933, a commander and chief in trade ). Very bad for Mattel and Hasbro. Accelll : horrible figures. Same picture as Boskalis a bit , operating cash flow drop from Eur 75 to 7 million. Spie FY figures : weak balance sheet. Ter Beke, Resilux ok. Bois sauvage : overvalued here. Arcelormittal : china really cuttting steel capacity ?
Exxon and Chevron with analyst meetings. Xom wants to double profit by 2025, but huge capex needed, Chevron better free cash flow profile as the biggest capex is behind.Manitou, FY figures, good P/E , free cash flows weaker. Good company but valuation needs correction before buying. More then 27 times PE over the last 10 years. Esprit, huge 1H losses, Inditex also hammered. Tarkett and Balta also hammered on the almost bankrupt Carpetright.Balta valuation becoming ok. Sap, Kinepolis, JCdecaux, Rolls Royce : on more then 30 times free cash flow. Iliad also very expensive. Savencia , good fy figures, cash flows a bit weaker.Mcbride figures were weak as expected in trumpdepression. Corbion, fy figures, good company but jv losses, waiting for better entry levels as PE is closer to 24. Boskalis , FY expensive. Casino complex reading of this company and france is cash burning, balance sheet also soso, debt up.Engie, FY figures ok, very complicated balance sheet. Boskalis also in the doldrums since 2014 and will continue. The operating cash flow is in freefall from 413 million to Eur -3 million, after capex the company is burning Eur 300 million !!! Oeps. Akzo Nobel, Postnl, Heidelberg Druck, Agfa suffering from the same problem. The P/E looks good but " forgets " the impact from cash out for pensions : 400 million at Akzo, 80 million at Postnl and 40 million at Druck . Cash flows are a better indicator then P/L's.A lot of german companies suffer from this like Salzgitter.
Anybody seen a Harley in Europe ? Less and less because the Harley geneation ( baby boomers ) are too old.Target ok nrs, trading on 14 times P/E , fairly priced. Telecom Italia and Telefonica still weak balance sheets, making them speculative. 97% off balance sheets are weak in the south of Europe,75% weak in all of Europe as defined by equity to total balance sheet ( 50/50, less is deemed weak by Warren Buffett ). So following investments in the south of Europe is not so difficult as most companies are to be deemed speculative.
Volkswagen is such a company with a weak balance sheet. Around 100 billion in net debt, but mind this debt is covered by finance and leasing receivables. Management target is for 10 billion in free cash flow by 2020, putting these on 15 times free cash flow would give you a bargain, but when debt is higher then the market cap , you have to take the debt as equity meaning, fair value is only 50 billion. And with car pricing above 2007 , deflation is smurking. So Volkswagen is a very tough case like most auto companies. In deflation valuation becomes more of an art.
Agfa and Hamon : teribble figures, the high days of these companies were in the 90's. Deutsche post , fy figures, trading on a very expensive 30 times free cash flow.
Ontex : weak figures. 70 million in free cash flow, since long expensive. Telecom Italia, Fiat : balance sheets still an issue. Quoted real estate funds, problem with most is that they do not have a depreciation charge. VW looking to IPO its truck business. TKH on 30 times free cash flow, overvalued. CFE on 15 times PE ok.
How to value those Arcelormittals now. Normalized earnings or Trumpearnings ? Take normalized but tough to value. Valuation of assets is no science, definitely not in deflation. Then not worth a lot.
Davide Campari : growing nicely. not cheap. Sligro with the big exit of Emté.
Crown castle with a cap increase. This REIT trades on a P/E of 100. Trump tarifs plan could hit the margins of automakers in the US ,like Ford,GM, Volkswagen. Also bad for the likes of steel users like Greif, ( published soso figures, very strong company, but will get hit in their margins,keep on eye on them ), bekaert ( bekaert overvalued on 22 times free cash flow ) Technicolor in dire straits, Beter Bed too suffering from Trumpdepression with a halving of the net profit and dividend. WPP Trumpdepression victim too. Proximus on 19 times free cash flow,not exactly a bargain.Orpea overvalued, has also " used " its balance sheet. Umicore overvalued since long. Roularta with operating losses. Nyrstar : worthless after good reading of the 2017 figures, Jensen ok
Peugeot with its full year figures. First look very strong but the company has huge capex and taken into account the minorities, free cash flow figures look soso, SEB : strong company with strong brands Calor and SEB, and strong Fy figures but stock expensive. Carrefour with its usual misery. Econocom with a 200 million convertible, he,creative financial guys here, Wienerberger with very strong FY figures, although the question of peak earnings is real. ABI , again volume growth, after todays rise on 24 times free cash flow taken the minorities into account. Bonduelle, margin contraction, the company is using its balance sheet. A stock drop could be an opportunity to look into the case. Monster beverage , P/E more then 40, came with weak nrs. Vallourec further reducing capacity. Gopro and Fitbit gadget companies,gadget gone, company gone. Suez adressing its concerns, bureau Veritas with good organic growth. Macys going indeed strong. Potential bargains but lower quality companies are Campbell,Office depot ( 5 times free cash flow ) and Gannett. Balta warns, D'ieteren : only 50 million free cash flow,very bad,Sioen ok, Adecco sees slowdown, is cyclical like Randstad. Biocartis overvalued.
Biomerieux warns, is in the short portfolio, overvalued. Ahold delhaize , decent figures on 15 times free cash with cap leasing but will likely invest in price in Belgium, deflation.AVH,CFE ok, ok valued. Solvay ok , fairly valued, Bekaert on 22 times free cash this year. Grandvision fully valued.SES flying after investors misread their figures. On 2020 targets i value it at 21 euros. But mind,in deflation valuation of assets is no science. It will get very volatile indeed.Accor on more then 30 times free cash flow.
Postnl : actually overvalued, if you would value it on 2018 not worth a lot, Vandevelde cuts dividend,Accentis nice, Basf strong. Spie looks like Imtech 2 if you look into the acquisition trial and balance sheet.Econocom : this company has strange reporting , since long, a bit like GE. Not reading too much and you can find big errors in their reporting. They have put gross cash flow into their balance sheet reporting on 2017, never seen that. Warning signs all over the place, including continious growth by acquisitions.
Volkswagen FY 2017 : 6 billion cash drain in automotive. Postnl warns, only 50 million in free cash flow. Nyrstar also burning more then 100 million. Recticel strong performance given setbacks.SES : overreaction,on 2020 targets we get a fair value of Eur 21. General Electric restates its figures. Forgot to look at Coca Cola, only a meager 6 billion in free cash flow this year. Still on 30 times free cash flow.
Mcbride coming in the buy zone. Gannett decent figures. Ageas and KBC also decent figures , fully valued.Asr undervalued. Hewlett Packard going strong. 12 times free cash flow
Forfarmers is a nice company with a moat, stock at 9,3 valuation at Eur 10. EVS, warns, Heijmans nr soso. Bam draining. Deceuninck, UCB fully valued. Umicore too expensive. Bid on Realdolmen by GFI. SES nrs ok, stock undervalue here.
Wolters and Randstad going nice, fully valued. Good companies. BAM with its cash drains. Kendrion, Ageas , Accor, Orange ok but overvalued. Orange still heavy balance sheet.
Full year figures of : Danone, ( decent),Vopak ( fully valued here ), Vivendi ( more then fully valued ), Eutelsat ( ok, free cash flow confirmed ), TF1 ( still on more then 20 times free cash flow ), Chipotle and Tripadvisor : overvalued , you pay more then 20 times free cash flow, Air France KLM : burns 400 million if you take the leasing into account. Renault decent free cash flow in automotive, trading on 25 times automotive free cash flow, not cheap
Schneider ok, same goes for Capgemini, 17 times and respectively 20 times free cash flow, Arcadis also ok, NN : most insurance companies weak interest rate, Nexans weak since long, Nestle under pressure on weak NA. Keep an eye on Danone if it drops a lot. Besi strong but for how long the semi-cycle turns.
Thyssenkrupp with still very weak free cash flows, Umicore too expensive since long ( some board members agree ). Activision Blizzard also very expensive. Danone better demographics then AB Inbev, as you can see beer consumption declining in the US and Germany,again demographics.
Vopak should be fine as excess oil will need to be storaged.
Heineken and Umicore,strong companies but trading on more then 20 times free cash flow, same goes for Lotus Bakeries expensive. Deutsche Bank, when does it collapse with its leverage of 1 on 20.
And so the market crashed on the Q4 figures of Chevron, Exxon and Amazon. Or the absence of some strong figures namely free cash flow.
Chevron with a bare 2 billion $ in free cash flow , Exxon with 13 billion $ free cash flow, Amazon with 2 billion in free cash flow, meaning they are strongly overvalued if you apply mutliples of 15 times free cash flow on Exxon and Chevron and 20 times on Amazon. And this before the big deflation. he stock market still screens like 1937 : FED rate hikes on a weak economy, meaning -50 percent on techno stocks. We also had the steel, commodities rally like 1935-1937. History always repeats.
recommanding to short stocks that are on 30 to 40 times earnings, if history repeats the P/E multiples could drop to 12-15 by 2020. We are in for a very wild ride. Ab Inbev, Danone, L'Oreal coming down but still on more then 20 times free cash flow. On 15 times i would buy them. Hamon had a cash drain of more then 60 million in 1H2017, not out of the woods
Deutsche Bank with its losses, bitcoin crash, Mattel , 250 million cash drain, and Gopro a catastrophy. Apple ok, Amazon free cash flow of 1.7 billion putting it on 20 times free cash flow gives 34 billion and this before the big deflation. Arcelormittal, last 3 years could be seen as normalized , gives 6,3 billion ebtida, capex 3, pension and interest at 1 billion , gives net profit of 1,4 billion gives 17 billion in value at best, in dcf we take into account the pension deficit then we arrive at only 10 billion euro, 80 percent downside in the name.
H&M with its deflation warning, like BIC who sees its margins being attacked. Margins will suffer and companies will try to safeguard them, slashing costs and personnel like GE, Chesapake. Dassault, Facebook , MSFT : decent but deflation pending. KPN on 15 times free cash flow. Deflation till 2022, and deflation means misery.
Jc Decaux, leader in billboards , very good international exposure, but on more then 30 times earnings. How low will Aaple go in deflation, 30 percent deflation, nokia remake, means it would be loss making. Infineon expensive, Siemens suffering from low oil and gas like GE. 15 times free cash on Siemens gives us more 80 billion in valuation,a bit overvalued. Arcelormittal strongearnings and outlook, weak free cash flow and capex guidence raised. Overvalued at Eur 30. Ontex still suffering,still a bit expensive, also some deflation.
Harley Davidson Q4 results showing demographics matter a lot, recently seen people on Harleys, less then in the past he, because Harley is mid 40 ties and 50 ties, baby boomers are now gardening not driving harleys...sell harley
SAP still going strong, but fully valued. Philips a bit expensive at 30 times free cash flow.
Ablynx gets a further bid by Sanofi. Intel still rocks. Carrefour does a beginning 1930 move.
Bois Sauvage also doing a 1929. On 30 times PE. Neuhaus is hiring a pricing analyst, 30 percent deflation would bring Neuhaus to a 50 million euro loss. Bekaert looking for a cost cutter. Dead canary readers know why, it will be ugly Cat on 30 times free cash flow.
Esprit with a loss warning.
Utilities like Suez, Engie,Veolia, RWE, E.ON all having weak balance sheets as defined by equity to total balance sheet, only 25 percent. Stay off. Grandvision expensive since long. JNJ and PG publishing mixed figures. Euronext is a company with a castle with a moat, there is only one stock market. SEB, good company with strong brands but you do not pay these multiples
Nike and Adidas almost duopoly. Nice moat long term. Arcelormittal : recurring ebitda more like 6 billion in crisis,, capex 3, pension cost 0,5. 15 times leveraged free cash flow gives 7 billion value or downside of 80 percent. Boeing and Airbus reaping in the orders. Bombardier, LT deal good with Airbus, but weak balance sheet and cash draining. Chesapeake : cash drains and weak balance sheet.
Carpetright -40 percent on the warning of waning consumer confidence. Beter Bed also warning
Stocks that are on more than 30 times free cash and strongly overvalued : Philips, Remy Cointreau, Vivendi, Zalando, Biomerieux, Dassault Systemes
Xerox and Conti looking for split up, Nyrstar and Sanomo further reducing workers. Nyrstar lay offs puts doubt on the revamp of port pirie, Umicore has its doubt on the project. Carrefour since long zero free cash flow. Same goes for Casino.Strong insider buying in ABI
Hugo Boss also doing some discounting, i expect more of it.
Like Hennes and Mauritz other clothing retailers doing heavy discounting.
Viacom looks cheap on 10 times free cash flow. Still seeing a lot of beets in the field, sugar price has collapsed. Suedzucker still a bit expensive. Draegerwerke too.
I was asked for more details, so i will give them. Fairmount Santrol gets a bid, Target when we bougth was on 12 times free cash flow, they had a good christmas season, not like Marks and Spencer. London will see a lost decade, was already crap long times with the docklands, will see huge deflation in London.
Vivendi issues a warning, overvalued like most stocks in the cac40. Underluying free cash flow of 400 million plus stakes minus debt gives me 14 billion, we are trading 33 billion before the big deflation.
Ablynx gets its bid. Many big pharma companies facing a drought in the pipiline like GSK, UCB. And some facing deflation like Novo Nordisk so noraml we get bids on biotech with good pipelines like Ablynx. Tigenix also getting bid out. We have seen warnings from Mc Bride, Low Bonar, Debenhams, Barnes and Nobles. There are getting cheaper but no strong buys. Debenhams and Low are ok.
Recent company contact with bekaert suggest a serious slowdozn in the latest months. SES, Eutelsat , positive comments from Keplercheuvreux, i agree, but also deflation here playing a roll. Debenhams at 35 pence is cheap a buy
18/12: Even Bekaert on zero free cash flow, 2016 normalized gave 115 million, so this on 16 times gives only Eur 30 a share. SES up big. Sanofi is citing deflation.
16/12: SES on a 10 percent yield. Michelin overvalued at 122 on normalized margins, short. Carrefour zero free cash flow since long.
Beter bed, D ieteren, colruyt warnings. Colruyt schrinking margins
Bekaert insider buying here. Good buy below Eur 35.
Steinhoff meltdown, always be skeptical when a company year after year makes hefty acquisitions, when no free cash flows are shown. A bit of a Imtech remake
Bekaert is interesting here, EVS too, SES up big time on divi
Bam warning, since long a weak balance sheet and zero free cash flow, Neopost also warned Q3 is not going well, profits have been declining for years. Valuation getting interesting tough. Nyrstar back in depression levels. Commodity stocks will not rebound before 2023, trading range at best. No shipping stocks like Euronav for me. Italian CIR with huge cash drains, italy almost broke ladies and gentlemen. Strong rebound in SES, the company stated it will keep the divi, even in the difiicult years 2018°2019
Bekaert at eur 35 is interesting, Vopak too
SES nice rebound here, i have fair value at 16 euro per share. You missed the 10 percent div yield: Nyrstar at Eur 6 has seen some big insider buying, balta is a scam if you look at the operating performance of the last few years , not good and not cheap: Foot locker, bed bath and beyond, nice rebound was cheap, as was Mattel. Fiarmount also nice figures. AT T with a nice rally. Debenhams and Low bonar worth a closer look after the crash. Like debenhams at 38 pence. PSA crash, complex with the Opel deal and deflation. Michelin, Dasssault, Remy , too expensive: Buying some Vopak at Eur 35, stron g rebound in the likes of Kroger, Target, Ahold Delhaize. Engie, EDF crap like BNP, complete crash of debt bubble Altice
Natuzzi sees waning demand, same goes for Balta. SES, Bekaert, Colruyt becoming interesting
CIR bad figures. Balta warning, waning demand is nothing new for canary readers. Duro fuelguera almost bankrupt. Banca Carige holders also bankrupted. Altice going how debt mountains will go bankrupt. Was one of our favorite shorts. Bourbon, CGG since long in Trumpdepression. Michelin still expensive on normalized earnings
SES is cheap here, did a roadshow in Madrid. yield More then 10 percent Accell , working cap issues for long, seeng the same as harley davidson, Q3 weak. EVS seeing the same. Vallourec, Schlumberger getting hit, Chevron only had 2 billion free cash flow ytd. Sell. GE in trouble, like mentioned before. Nyrstar cap increase, Hamon since long in trouble. TF1 too expensive,
14/11: RWE with huge cash drains. sell
Target is rather cheap. What to think about Celgene. If we value IBM 15 times free cash flow, we get 120 billion an market cap. SES is cheap here on 10 percent free cash flow yield and 10 percent div yield.
And so the companies like Bekaert, Sif most admit they see something strange in Q3. Goodyear and Michelin also see squeeze in margins, like most companies will see. Dead canary followers know this.
Heijmans and Nyrstar both stars that are rocking. For the rest we are in Trumpdepression now. Mattel slashing the dividend. Danone rocks, now on 30 times free cash flow. Banks like BNP and Soc gen showing the depression is real, no need for further debt as most are already overleveraged. Air France KLM , figures actually bad as the company is also renting planes. Still burning cash. SES on 10 percent dividend yield. A buy here at Eur 13.65.Insider buying in AT&T by a berkshire executive, which is cheap after the crash ( see below )
Heijmans rocks, ctt crashing after mail decline hurts the bottom line.
Amazon still burning cash if you take into account capital leasing and stock option expense. SES Global and Eutelsat crashing, stocks starting to get interesting here from a LT perspective. Data usage will continue to go up. 10 percent div yield on SES. Coil interesting.
AT and T ok valuation. 14 times free cash flow. Total strong figures, Chevron still very weak free cash flows, only 1 billion in free cash flow in the first 9 months. Mattel slashing the divivend, JC penney and retail like Macy s in the doldrums.
Philips lightening with its cash drains. Carrefour with zero free cash flow. Hengdeli shareholders destroyed. Wolters is a group with a castle and a moat, in some divisions they are worldleader and it is difficult to catch up on a global scale.
Telecom Italia publishing very weak half year figures. Free cash flow of Eur 400 million in, very weak including the weak balance sheet.
Esprit weak outlook, VW going strong in profits but weak in free cash flow, same goes for Fiat. Euronext is a company
with a strong moat as there is only one real exhange. KBC , the most profitable bank franchise in Europe, not Deutsche Bank.
Colruyt with the buy back of shares. Stock still a bit pricey but ok here. D´ieteren , question what the real capex of Belron would look like underinvested, think more of Eur 200 million. Walmart with the buy back like colruyt, was trading on 14 times free cash flow. Traditional retailers fighting back Amazon. SES stock crashing after weak 1h17 figures, still not cheap. Fagron fairly priced. Ablynx with their breakthrough, best belgian biotech stock.
Savencia looking cheap. Delhaize Ahold should buy Kroger. Would be a good fit and create a strong competitor.
Looking for some cheap stock. Lee Entreprises makes the fit, Independent News ans Media too. D´ieteren looking to sell 40% of carglass, looks more or less fairly valued if you make senario analysis. i come at Eur 40. Fairmount Santrol , Sibelco looking to make a potential bid. Not so cheap , 17 times free cash flow. Kroger looking optical cheap but delfation lingers, 2.5 billion free cash flow on 2016 earnings
A bit of a recap, foot locker ok to buy after the crash, Sif holding also look worthy. Recticel and EVS buy worthy on dip. Carrefour dreadfull nrs. Mediaset still also ver weak in the nrs. Vivendi free cash flow....or more to say , drain in 1H07, not good. Naturex also very poor. Air France KLM fluying like Heijmans.
Telefonica and Orange burdened b high debt, in dcf this works not out well.
IBA crash, was very expensive. Walmart putting deflation in retail.
Vopak, after its crash, starting to get interesting as excess oil will need to be storaged. WPP warns advertising is down. Trumpdepression
Economy coming slowly to a standstill. Look at the cash flow figures of Agfa in 1H07. 40 million drain. Worthless in DCF.Low's ( home improvement ) hitting .
The usual dump of Tradicor in Umicore around the top. Exxon Q2 free cash flow of 2 billion $.On an annual basis we are hitting 8 billion this on 15 times free cash flow gives a value of 120 billion, we are trading 330 billion. The coming crash will be devastating for Exxon and Amazon. The package business is lossmaking , the more people use Amazon the bigger the losses. I value the stock at 50$ ( Look at the balance sheet and the current asset postion, only 1 billion ). On the more postive side, Foot locker cheap after the crash, Macy's too
Heijmans operating profit around zero, no reason for buying. K+S seeing overcapacity. Wienerberger a bit weak too expensive. Boskalis seeing no recovery, a bit expensive too. Sipef strong.
Lot of companies reporting their Q2 nrs. It is sell on the good news. The problem is in uncertain times you do not pay 20 to 30 times earnings. Fagron strong. Nvidia, Priceline good examples of good reportings but just too expensive.....and it will be definitely be too expensive with the 10% deflation we are facing in the next few years.....Disney showing weakness with ESPN. Dentsply one of our shorts going up in smoke as theu need to writedown 1 billion in goodwill, sales down. Altice looking for a mega acquisition .....financed with debt. Only 50 billion of debt on the balance sheet :-). Going broke in Trumpdepression ? Mattel hitting 52 weak low. Females play less with dolls and more with computer....stock not a bargain yet, ceo insider buying, but one to keep an eye on if it crashes further. Petrobas still heavily indebted.
Adidas strong but P/E's of more than 30. Hugo boss more then ok, but deflation for the expensive seats can be feared. Oil & gas like Fugro, CGG, TechnipFMC, Bourbon in oil depression....and not coming back for years as oil will stay low for a very long time. CTT very bad figures, sell.
Apple still strong. Many companies like Melexis on P/E's of more then 30. Too expensive given the uncertainties.
Huge reporting of companies. Main message i see is decent P/L figures but free cash flows a bit weaker. Most of them like Akzo, KPN, etc on 30 times free cash flow. Would be a good buy at 12 times free cash flow. Auto companies push for sales with vendor financing. Jc Decaux on 30 times, Technicolor with a huge sales drop, Imerys warns , Elior too expensive, Orange too expensive, Vinci ok but expensive, Wolters : a good company but too expensive, Bekaert getting cautious was overhyped, deflation. And Amazon will post losses in Q3 2017. 1929 if you look at the stock, ou know what happened later.......